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1以下为本篇的中英文翻译，全部为自己整理，如有错误欢迎指出！（shownotes有字数限制，最后部分放在评论区啦）
作为一名未来学家as a futurist
我认为英语中最危险的两个词I think the two most dangerous words in the English language
是 “难以想象” 和 “不可思议”are unimaginable and unthinkable
所以我想邀请你富有创造力地so I want to invite you to think creatively
勇敢地去思考and courageously
一些难以想象的可能性about some hard to imagine possibilities
我们来玩一个 “假如” 的游戏let's play a game of what if
我会描述三个未来的假想场景I'll describe three hypothetical future scenarios
你试着想象自己会有什么感受you try to imagine how you would feel
以及你会怎么做and what you would do
如果你在这些陌生的新世界醒来if you woke up in these strange new worlds
未来场景一future number one
2033 年，极端高温it's 2033 extreme heat
野火与干旱wildfire and droughts
比最可怕的气候预测还要糟糕have been worse than even the most dire climate predictions
因此，地球工程即将进行全球投票so now geoengineering is up for a global vote
90 亿人有权投票赞成或反对nine billion people are eligible to vote yes or no
一项为期 10 年、力度极大的太阳辐射管理计划on a 10 year plan of aggressive solar radiation management
向大气层中注入硫酸盐颗粒injecting sulfate particles into the atmosphere
以阻挡部分太阳光线to block some of the sun's rays
这场公投被称为 “阳光退出”the election is called sun exit
支持者说，投赞成 “阳光退出” 可能会带来一场为期 10 年的 “冬季”they're saying a yes on sun exit could bring about a 10 year winter
但是but
它也可能解决我们面临的一些最严峻的气候挑战it could also solve some of our biggest climate challenges
这些风险和意外后果值得吗is it worth the risks the unintended consequences
你会如何投票how would you vote
你会如何学习、做好投票准备how would you educate yourself to be ready to vote
场景更新：阳光退出公投通过，我们要开始实施了scenario update sun exit past we're doing it
太阳辐射管理将在 10 天后启动solar radiation management starts in 10 days
现在你感觉如何now how do you feel
接下来 10 天你会做什么准备what do you do in the next 10 days to get ready
好的，一年后okay it's one year later
地球工程确实起效了the geoengineering is working yes
但矛盾的是but paradoxically
人们对科学的信任度跌至历史最低点trust in science is now at an all time low
人们声称出现了身心方面的副作用people are saying there are mental and physical side effects
这只是虚假信息吗is it just misinformation
你会怎么做来保持健康what do you do to stay healthy
下一个未来，好的new future okay
现在是 2029 年it's 2029 now
你们的联邦政府推行了彻底的、近乎强制的零浪费政策and your federal government has gone full blown zero waste authoritarian style
如今，丢弃任何东西都是违法的it is now illegal to throw anything away
他们真的收走了所有人的垃圾桶they literally took everyone's garbage cans
嗯，不过堆肥仍然被允许mm hmm now composting's still allowed
回收利用从未真正奏效recycling never worked
而垃圾 —— 你一点都不能产生and garbage you can't make any of it nothing
但有个好消息but there's some good news
心理学家创造了一个新词psychologists have invented a new word
用来形容零浪费时代生活中的积极情绪to capture the positive emotion that defines life in a zero waste age
零悦感 / 零废喜悦（自创词：zerophoria）zerophoria
它融合了喜悦、自豪与足智多谋it's a combination of joy pride and resourcefulness
一种因不浪费任何东西而产生的轻盈感a lightness of being that comes from wasting nothing
不留任何痕迹and leaving no trace behind
你对这些变化作何反应how do you react to these changes
你会养成新习惯、帮助他人适应吗do you learn new habits help others adapt
还是会站起来加入抗议与抵抗or do you rise up and join the protest resistance
或是成为一名改革者or become a reformer
提出让零浪费社会变得更好的方法propose ways to make zero waste society better
好，我们来想象最后一个未来okay let's imagine one final future
2031 年，气候移民数量激增it's 2031 climate migration is on the rise
低生育率的国家countries with low fertility rates
正在互相争夺移民are competing with each other for immigrants
各国政府正在建设气候适应型友好城市governments are building climate resilient welcome cities
并补贴人们移居至此and paying people to move there
这是一场名为 “欢迎派对” 的新型地缘政治运动的一部分it's part of a new geopolitical movement called the Welcome Party
预计未来十年将有多达 10 亿人在援助下进行气候迁移up to 1 billion people are expected to climate relocate with assistance
over the next decade
你被要求填写一份关于气候风险与迁移意愿的个人调查you have been asked to take a personal survey of climate risk and intention to migrate
“欢迎派对” 组织正在收集数据The welcome Party is collecting data
以模拟并规划一场安全、公平的大规模气候迁移to simulate and plan a safe and equitable mass climate migration
你必须说出三个你愿意移居的气候适应型城市you have to name three climate resilient cities you would be willing to move to
在获得社会与经济支持的前提下given social and economic support
你会选哪三座城市which three cities do you name
你觉得自己在思考这个问题时，准备有多充分how prepared do you feel to consider this question
我为什么提出这些假设why am I posing these hypotheticals
来看看这些数据well take a look at this data
这两张图表显示了我们使用 “难以想象” 和 “不可思议” 这两个词的频率these two charts show how often we use the words unimaginable and unthinkable
在新闻报道中in our journalism
看看它们变得有多常见look how common they've become
我们常常感到震惊we are so often shocked
被未来的走向打得措手不及and blindsided by how the future unfolds
但事情本不必如此but it doesn't have to be that way
在加州帕洛阿尔托的非营利组织 —— 未来研究所里at the nonprofit Institute for the future in Palo Alto California
我帮助人们培养想象力与领导力I help people build imagination leadership skills
通过模拟今天你们思考过的这些难以想象的未来by simulating hard to imagine futures like you've thought about today
我们的目标是提升每个人在三项未来想象力指标上的得分our goal is to improve everyone's scores
分别是on three measures of future imagination
比如思维灵活性like mental flexibility
从 1 到 10 分on a scale of 1 to 10
换句话说，它对你而言是 “可想象” 的吗in other words is it thinkable to you
还有现实希望also realistic hope
从 1 到 10 分on a scale of 1 to 10
在这个未来醒来，你会有多担忧或多兴奋how worried or excited would you be to wake up in this future
我们希望你预见新的风险we want you to anticipate new risks
同时也看到积极转型的机遇but also opportunities for positive transformation
最后是未来力量and finally future power
从 1 到 10 分，你觉得自己有多准备好on a scale of 1 to 10 how ready do you feel
去帮助自己和他人to help yourself and others
如果这个未来真的到来if this future were really to happen
这是我们看到提升最明显的分数this is the number we see go up the most
在人们想象自己在假想世界中采取行动之后after people imagine themselves taking action in a hypothetical world
所以下一次当你本能地so the next time you have an instinct
想把一种可能性描述为 “不可思议” 或 “难以想象” 时，等一等to describe a possibility as unthinkable or unimaginable wait
试着去想象那种可能性play with that possibility instead
帮助我们成为一个社群、一个社会help us become a community a society
能够自信地说that can confidently say
我们可以面对，我们可以解决we can face and we can solve
那些曾经难以想象的挑战，一起面对previously unimaginable challenges together
对我们来说，没有不可想象的未来for us there are no unthinkable futures
谢谢thank you