EP02 |我是怎么看懂十亿美元估值的 How I Decoded a Billion-Dollar Valuation

上一期我说"我要学商业"，这一期我直接上手拆了一个biotech估值模型。Someone told me a drug was worth a billion dollars. I froze. Where did that number come from? Turns out it's not magic — it's a very precise calculation. And I, a clinical person with zero finance background, could actually understand it.

📌 In this episode 本期内容：· Why a drug's business model looks just like a clinical trial enrollment funnel 为什么商业模型长得像入组漏斗

· You spent 10 years developing a drug, and only 4,000 people use it — why? 花十年研发的药只有四千人用，为什么？

· What is QALY? And why a $200K drug is actually "cheap" QALY是什么？为什么二十万美元的药其实是"便宜"的

· $800M revenue? After costs, taxes, and discounting, see what's left 你以为赚了八亿？扣完再看看

· $400M in 10 years = only $150M today — time is eating your money 时间真的在吃你的钱

· The #1 variable in the valuation model? It's YOUR clinical work 💡 Biggest takeaway: Clinical work isn't "just treating patients." Every clinical decision directly moves the most important value driver. You're not a small cog — you're the engine.

本期90%英文，关键总结用中文。我在用这个播客逼自己讲清楚商业逻辑。如果你也是临床/科研背景在学商业，或者你也曾经听到一个天文数字然后一脸懵 — 来评论区找我，我们一起搞明白。I belong at the top — I'm just on my way there. Come walk with me.

我属于顶峰，只是还在路上。