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0This research analyzes over 115,000 influenza A virus genomes to identify genomic traits that facilitate sustained transmission among mammals. The study reveals that viral lineages capable of long-term persistence in humans, pigs, dogs, and horses consistently exhibit a reduction in genomic GC content and specific dinucleotide frequencies over time. Using this data, the authors developed a support vector machine (SVM) model that distinguishes between viruses causing sporadic infections and those with pandemic potential with over 99% accuracy. The analysis suggests that while lower GC content is not the only factor for adaptation, it may be a necessary condition for avian viruses to achieve ongoing circulation in mammalian hosts. These findings highlight how genomic composition can serve as a vital metric in risk assessment tools designed to predict and monitor future influenza pandemics. Notably, recent H5N1 variants found in mink and foxes already display these identified genomic shifts, indicating a heightened risk for mammalian adaptation.
References:
Ye Y, Shuai H, Song Y, et al. Genomic features associated with sustained mammalian transmission of avian influenza A viruses[J]. Nature Microbiology, 2026, 11(3): 802-814.
