You are listening to Curiosity Curated Shorts. I am Zong. Here in mid-May 2025, Shanghai is experiencing an unusually early onset of summer heat, and we may see a summer even hotter than 2024, the hottest summer on record. As astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson explains, climate change is creating a 'new normal' that deviates from each city's historical weather patterns - a transformation we must prepare for. While the world pursues conventional solutions like renewable energy and sustainable practices, a crucial question emerges: what if these measures prove insufficient and too slow? This concern has led scientists to consider more dramatic interventions - the ability to directly manipulate Earth's climate systems. But such power comes with both promise and peril. This short episode explores geoengineering, a controversial field proposing large-scale technological interventions in our planet's climate systems. We'll examine its potential as a last-resort option, weighing the hopeful possibilities against serious risks, and consider important warnings from both scientific research and cultural works like Neal Stephenson's "Termination Shock" about the implications of such massive environmental manipulation. 00:21 Episode Intro 01:59 What is Geoengineering? 05:50 The Great Geoengineering Debate 11:15 The Triggers – Why Would We Ever Use It? 13:45 "Termination Shock" – A Fictional Warning? 17:50 Beyond Fiction – What Else Should We Consider? 20:22 Conclusion Sources: Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson Opening Music: Do You Feel It by Chaos Chaos Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com

您正在收听的是Curiosity Curated Shorts，我是Zong。 2025年5月12日，上海市气象局正式宣布入夏。这个日期比常年平均值提前了整整12天。而就在上个月底，上海市应急管理局也透露今夏上海可能更热。2024年上海创下了52个高温日的历史新高，打破152年连续酷暑日的最长纪录，这意味着今年2025年的夏季可能会更长、也更热。正如美国天体物理学家尼尔·德格拉斯·泰森所说，气候变化正在创造一个偏离各个城市历史天气模式的"新常态"——这是一个我们必须为之做好准备的转变。 当世界积极推进可再生能源和可持续发展等常规解决方案时，一个关键问题浮现：如果这些措施效果不够理想或进展过慢，我们该怎么办？正是这种忧虑促使科学家们开始考虑更激进的干预手段——直接操控地球气候系统。然而，这种力量既带来希望，也暗藏危机。 本期我们将探讨地球工程学这一备受争议的领域。该领域提出通过大规模技术手段干预地球气候系统。我们将审视它作为应对气候变化最后手段的潜力，权衡其希望与重大风险，并思考来自科学研究以及包括尼尔·斯蒂芬森的《终止冲击》（Termination Shock）在内的文化作品对此类大规模环境干预所发出的重要警示。 00:21 本集介绍 02:13 什么是地球工程？ 05:22 关于地球工程的争论 10:07 触发因素：为什么我们可能使用它？ 12:25 "终止冲击"：一个虚构的预警？ 16:10 超越小说——我们还需要思考什么？ 18:22 结语 参考资料: Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson Opening Music: Do You Feel It by Chaos Chaos Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com

You are listening to Curiosity Curated. I am Zong. In recent years, the ever-intensifying geopolitical and economic rivalries between major powers have made it impossible to ignore them, and the cooperative spirit that once seemed to characterize the global order feels increasingly strained. We see this reflected clearly in news headlines dominated by trade disputes, new industrial policies like the CHIPS Act in the US and Europe, and nations increasingly prioritizing economic security over traditional free market principles. Since Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, world leaders and experts, including Ray Dalio and Singapore PM Lawrence Wong, have warned about the collapse of the post-war liberal world order. If this system is indeed breaking down, what’s replacing it? Is this something new, or are we seeing the return of older ideas? Today, we're diving into the intellectual history of an ideology that seems to be making a comeback: neomercantilism. We’ll explore what it is, where it came from, why it seemed to fade into the background for a while, and why it's so relevant again today. Our exploration draws primarily from Eric Helleiner's book "The Neomercantilists," along with recent analyses from Phenomenal World and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Helleiner is a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo. We'll start by defining this often-misunderstood term. Then, we’ll trace its appearances throughout history, across different countries and circumstances. We’ll look at the unique period after World War II when a different, more liberal, order took center stage. And finally, we’ll explore why many observers believe we are now living in a new "neomercantilist moment.” 00:37 Episode Intro 03:00 What Is Neomercantilism? Defining the Idea 06:33 Global Origins and Thinkers 09:44 Neomercantilism Through History - An Enduring Impulse 10:46 The Neomercantilist Moment in Meiji Japan (Late 19th Century) 13:45 The Neomercantilist Moment After the Napoleonic Wars (Early 19th Century) 16:35 Neomercantilism in Advanced Economies 20:42 The Post-WWII Liberal Exception 26:12 The Neomercantilist Resurgence? The 21st Century Moment 29:30 Conclusion Sources: The Neomercantilists by Eric Helleiner The Revival of Neomercantilism, Eric Helleiner, www.phenomenalworld.org The Neo-mercantilist Moment, Federico Steinberg, www.csis.org Opening Music: Let’s Start WW3 by World Order Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com

您正在收听的是Curiosity Curated，我是Zong。 近年来，大国之间地缘政治和经济竞争日趋激烈，已无法忽视，而曾经体现全球秩序特征的合作精神也愈发紧张。这一点在新闻头条中清晰可见，它们充斥着贸易争端、美欧芯片法案等新产业政策，以及各国逐渐摒弃传统自由市场原则，转而优先考虑经济安全。 自特朗普公布“解放日”关税、发动全球贸易战以来，包括Ray Dalio和新加坡总理Lawrence Wong在内的世界领袖与专家纷纷警告，战后自由世界秩序正在崩塌。如果这个体系确实在瓦解，那么什么将取而代之？这究竟是一个全新的体系，还是我们正在目睹旧有思想的回归？ 今天，我们将深入探讨一个正在重新崛起的意识形态及其思想史：新重商主义。我们将深入研究它的本质、起源、为何一度淡出人们的视野，以及为何如今又变得如此重要。我们的探讨主要基于Eric Helleiner所著的《新重商主义者》，并结合了Phenomenal World和战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）的最新研究。Helleiner现任滑铁卢大学政治学教授。 首先，我们将明确定义这个常常被误解的术语。接着，我们将探索它在历史长河中的演变，考察它如何在不同国家和环境下出现。然后，我们将研究二战后的一个特殊时期——当时一个更为自由的新秩序占据主导地位。最后，我们将分析为什么众多观察家认为我们正在进入一个"新重商主义时代"。 00:37 本集介绍 02:45 什么是新重商主义？ 06:14 全球起源与相关思想家 08:45 历史中的新重商主义 - 一股持久的力量 09:45 明治日本的新重商主义时期（19世纪末） 12:15 拿破仑战争后的新重商主义时期（19世纪初） 14:32 发达经济体中的新重商主义 17:53 二战后的自由主义例外 22:41 新重商主义21世纪的复兴时刻？ 25:28 结语 Sources: The Neomercantilists by Eric Helleiner The Revival of Neomercantilism, Eric Helleiner, www.phenomenalworld.org The Neo-mercantilist Moment, Federico Steinberg, www.csis.org Opening Music: Let’s Start WW3 by World Order Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com

您正在收听的是Curiosity Curated Shorts，我是Zong。 面对新闻中不断涌现的全球大事件时，人们往往难以保持清晰的思维和日常生活的平衡。这种现象描述了当代人在信息爆炸时代面临的一个普遍挑战：如何在纷繁复杂的全球事件中维持心理上的稳定和清晰。一方面，强大的力量主导着我们的世界——从经济变迁到地缘政治紧张——这些复杂性常让人感到渺小和无力。另一方面，每个人都在经营着自己的内心世界，努力保持专注、应对不可避免的压力，或是寻找人生的意义，甚至只是想在喧嚣中寻得一份内心的宁静。 这正是我今天想简要思考的问题：那些宏大的外部系统与我们内心对理解和稳定的追求之间的联系。当我们追寻内心宁静的同时，又该如何开始理解像全球贸易政策这样复杂的议题？ 本周，我刷了Stephen Miran关于全球贸易的文章, 听了Sam Harris播客聊怎么在混乱中保持心境平和，还有Thomas Sowell在Uncommon Knowledge节目中论述事实与修辞之争，以及赫尔曼·黑塞的经典小说《悉达多》。看着听着，我发现这些内容都有一个共同的话题——我们怎么才能应对外部世界和内心世界的各种纷繁复杂？虽然这些对话和文章无法直接指引我们找到内心的平静，但它们犹如路途中的路标，让我意识到寻求内心平静是一段需要慢慢探索的漫长旅程。 00:23 本集介绍 02:18 理解外部系统：重新思考全球贸易 07:52 内心指南 - 寻求稳定与意义 11:10 连接外部与内心 13:55 结语 资料来源: A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System by Stephen Miran. #408 - Finding Equanimity in Chaos, Making Sense Podcast with Sam Harris. Uncommon Knowledge | Thomas Sowell: Facts Against Rhetoric, Capitalism, Culture and Yes, the Tariffs. Siddhartha by Hermann Hesse Opening Music: L'incanto sospeso by Paolo Buonvino Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com

You are listening to Curiosity Curated Shorts. I am Zong. Sometimes, we feel caught between the sheer scale of global events flashing across the news feed and the everyday reality of maintaining mental clarity. On one hand, immense forces shape our world – economic shifts, geopolitical tensions – and it's easy to feel dwarfed by their complexity. On the other hand, there's the internal landscape we all inhabit – trying to find focus, managing the inevitable stress, maybe searching for something like meaning or just a bit of calm in the noise. That intersection is what I want to briefly reflect on today: the connection between those vast external systems and our own internal quest for understanding and stability. How do we even begin to grapple with something as intricate as global trade policy, while also trying to cultivate some inner peace? This week, as I consumed a few different things: an essay by Stephen Miran on restructuring global trade, a Sam Harris podcast discussing equanimity, an Uncommon Knowledge episode with Thomas Sowell on facts versus rhetoric, and Hermann Hesse’s novel Siddhartha, a common thread emerged - how we might begin to approach the challenge of navigating complexity, both external and internal. While these are not answers to the quest for inner peace, perhaps they are useful markers on what I’m realizing will be a much longer journey. 00:23 Episode Intro 02:13 Understanding External System: Rethinking Global Trade 09:00 The Inner Compass – Seeking Stability and Meaning 12:25 Bridging the Macro and Micro 15:32 Outro Sources: A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System by Stephen Miran. #408 - Finding Equanimity in Chaos, Making Sense Podcast with Sam Harris. Uncommon Knowledge | Thomas Sowell: Facts Against Rhetoric, Capitalism, Culture and Yes, the Tariffs. Siddhartha by Hermann Hesse Opening Music: L'incanto sospeso by Paolo Buonvino Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com

You are listening to Curiosity Curate. I am Zong. For decades, Germany stood as an economic titan, a powerhouse of industry and innovation, admired and envied around the world. But today, the narrative has shifted. German auto giants like BMW and Mercedes-Benz, once symbols of engineering excellence, are struggling to keep pace with Chinese EV manufacturers. In Silicon Valley and Beijing, the AI competition races ahead while Germany watches from the sidelines. In this series, we'll be drawing insights from Wolfgang Münchau's book, "Kaput," to understand how and why this industrial powerhouse found itself at risk of becoming yesterday's success story. Wolfgang is a German journalist and former associate editor of the Financial Times, where he wrote a weekly column about the EU economy. In a nutshell, he argues that Germany has pursued a "neo-mercantilist" economic strategy prioritizing large export surpluses in physical goods. This is described as "the 21st-century pursuit of 18th-century French trade policies, with 19th-century companies, using the technologies of the 20th century." The “neo-mercantilist” system relies on government-corporate partnerships, often prioritizing industry interests over national politics. It resists disruptive innovation while maintaining conservative fiscal and protectionist policies. It led to over-reliance on specific countries like Russia and China, creating significant vulnerabilities. And this wasn't merely a policy, but a system supported by major political parties across Germany. In this episode, we begin by looking at the heart of the German economic system, its financial sector, and its struggle to adapt to the digital age. Join us for this journey through the rise and decline of a hugely successful industrial giant, as told by Wolfgang Münchau. 00:35 Episode Intro 03:00 The Troubled Financial Sector 04:47 The “Three-Pillar” Banking System and Corporatist Structure 06:45 State Banks Excessive Risk-taking 08:42 Current Challenges of the Banking System 11:48 Lagging Digital Infrastructure 17:28 Declining Car Industry & Resistance to Change 21:25 Chinese Building A New Industry from Scratch 23:10 German Reactions, Struggles & Outlook 27:00 Green Tech & AI: Lost Opportunities? (Source: Kaput by Wolfgang Münchau. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: 99 Luftballons by Nena Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

You are listening to Curiosity Curate. I am Zong. For decades, Germany stood as an economic titan, a powerhouse of industry and innovation, admired and envied around the world. But today, the narrative has shifted. German auto giants like BMW and Mercedes-Benz, once symbols of engineering excellence, are struggling to keep pace with Chinese EV manufacturers. In Silicon Valley and Beijing, the AI competition races ahead while Germany watches from the sidelines. In this series, we'll be drawing insights from Wolfgang Münchau's book, "Kaput," to understand how and why this industrial powerhouse found itself at risk of becoming yesterday's success story. Wolfgang is a German journalist and former associate editor of the Financial Times, where he wrote a weekly column about the EU economy. In a nutshell, he argues that Germany has pursued a "neo-mercantilist" economic strategy prioritizing large export surpluses in physical goods. This is described as "the 21st-century pursuit of 18th-century French trade policies, with 19th-century companies, using the technologies of the 20th century." The “neo-mercantilist” system relies on government-corporate partnerships, often prioritizing industry interests over national politics. It resists disruptive innovation while maintaining conservative fiscal and protectionist policies. It led to over-reliance on specific countries like Russia and China, creating significant vulnerabilities. And this wasn't merely a policy, but a system supported by major political parties across Germany. After examining Germany's financial sector and digital challenges in our previous episode, we'll now explore how its reliance on cheap Russian energy and an unexpected competitor has left Europe's largest economy vulnerable in today's complex global landscape. 00:35 Episode Intro 02:58 Schröder’s Rise and Neo-Mercantilism 05:00 Ostpolitik Tradition, Energy Cooperation with Russia 07:10 Economic Relations Turned into Dependency 09:55 Nord Stream 2 Controversy 13:02 The Illusion of Economic Interdependence 16:00 Russia's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine & Post Nord Stream 20:10 Engagement with China 22:46 Just-in-Time Production 25:00 Deepening Relations with China 27:07 Geopolitical Intrusions 28:23 China’s Emergence as Direct Industrial Competitor 33:32 Rooms for Maneuver (Source: Kaput by Wolfgang Münchau. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: 99 Luftballons by Nena Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

You are listening to Curiosity Curate. I am Zong. For decades, Germany stood as an economic titan, a powerhouse of industry and innovation, admired and envied around the world. But today, the narrative has shifted. German auto giants like BMW and Mercedes-Benz, once symbols of engineering excellence, are struggling to keep pace with Chinese EV manufacturers. In Silicon Valley and Beijing, the AI competition races ahead while Germany watches from the sidelines. In this series, we'll be drawing insights from Wolfgang Münchau's book, "Kaput," to understand how and why this industrial powerhouse found itself at risk of becoming yesterday's success story. Wolfgang is a German journalist and former associate editor of the Financial Times, where he wrote a weekly column about the EU economy. In a nutshell, he argues that Germany has pursued a "neo-mercantilist" economic strategy prioritizing large export surpluses in physical goods. This is described as "the 21st-century pursuit of 18th-century French trade policies, with 19th-century companies, using the technologies of the 20th century." The “neo-mercantilist” system relies on government-corporate partnerships, often prioritizing industry interests over national politics. It resists disruptive innovation while maintaining conservative fiscal and protectionist policies. It led to over-reliance on specific countries like Russia and China, creating significant vulnerabilities. And this wasn't merely a policy, but a system supported by major political parties across Germany. In this final episode, we'll explore two critical challenges facing Germany's economic model: the increasingly unsustainable export-driven economy and how its debt brake policy limits vital investments. These structural issues, deeply rooted in Germany's ordo-liberal tradition, are becoming more pronounced as the global landscape shifts towards new technological and political realities. 00:35 Episode Intro 03:10 Industrial Dependence 04:44 Large and Persistent Current-Account Surplus 07:52 Macroeconomic Policy Built on Iron-Clad Stability 12:12 Debt Brake 16:20 Economic Miracle during the Eurozone Crisis 18:15 Divergence between France and Germany (Source: Kaput by Wolfgang Münchau. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: 99 Luftballons by Nena Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

您正在收听的是Curiosity Curated，我是Zong。 数十年来，德国作为工业和创新的强国，一直是全球备受敬仰的经济巨人。然而如今，这一叙事已经改变。宝马和奔驰等曾代表工程卓越的德国汽车巨头，如今正在努力追赶中国电动汽车制造商。在硅谷和北京，人工智能竞赛正全速前进，而德国却只能在一旁观望。在本系列中，我们将通过Wolfgang Münchau的著作《德国奇迹的终结》，来深入理解这个工业强国为何以及如何面临着沦为昨日辉煌的风险。 Wolfgang是一位德国记者，曾任《金融时报》副主编，负责撰写欧盟经济周刊专栏。他指出，德国一直奉行"新重商主义"经济战略，过分追求实物商品的出口顺差。这种做法被他形象地描述为"在二十一世纪用二十世纪的技术，靠着十九世纪的企业，追求十八世纪的法国贸易政策。" "新重商主义"体系建立在政府与企业的紧密合作关系之上，它常常让产业利益凌驾于国家政治之上。这一体系不仅抵制创新变革，还坚持实行保守的财政政策和贸易保护主义。这种做法最终导致德国过度依赖俄罗斯和中国等特定国家，形成了重大的经济脆弱性。这不只是一项单一政策，而是一个获得德国各大政党支持的系统性体制。 在本集中，我们将首先探讨德国经济体系的核心——金融业，以及它在数字时代转型中面临的种种挑战。让我们跟随Wolfgang Münchau的视角，一同回顾这个工业巨人从辉煌到衰落的历程。 00:35 本集介绍 02:30 陷入困境的金融部门 03:58 "三大支柱"银行体系与法团主义 05:38 州立银行的过度风险投资 07:03 当前银行体系面临的挑战 09:52 落后的数字基础设施 14:35 汽车工业衰退与变革阻力 17:57 中国从无到有，构建全新产业 19:21 德国的应对、挣扎与未来展望 22:44 绿色科技与人工智能：失去的良机？ (资料来源: Kaput by Wolfgang Münchau. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: 99 Luftballons by Nena Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

您正在收听的是Curiosity Curated，我是Zong。 数十年来，德国作为工业和创新的强国，一直是全球备受敬仰的经济巨人。然而如今，这一叙事已经改变。宝马和奔驰等曾代表工程卓越的德国汽车巨头，如今正在努力追赶中国电动汽车制造商。在硅谷和北京，人工智能竞赛正全速前进，而德国却只能在一旁观望。在本系列中，我们将通过Wolfgang Münchau的著作《德国奇迹的终结》，来深入理解这个工业强国为何以及如何面临着沦为昨日辉煌的风险。 Wolfgang是一位德国记者，曾任《金融时报》副主编，负责撰写欧盟经济周刊专栏。他指出，德国一直奉行"新重商主义"经济战略，过分追求实物商品的出口顺差。这种做法被他形象地描述为"在二十一世纪用二十世纪的技术，靠着十九世纪的企业，追求十八世纪的法国贸易政策。" "新重商主义"体系建立在政府与企业的紧密合作关系之上，它常常让产业利益凌驾于国家政治之上。这一体系不仅抵制创新变革，还坚持实行保守的财政政策和贸易保护主义。这种做法最终导致德国过度依赖俄罗斯和中国等特定国家，形成了重大的经济脆弱性。这不只是一项单一政策，而是一个获得德国各大政党支持的系统性体制。 继上一集探讨德国的金融业和数字化挑战后，我们现在将深入分析其对俄罗斯廉价能源的依赖，以及一个新崛起的竞争对手如何使这个欧洲最大经济体在当今复杂的全球格局中陷入脆弱境地。 00:35 本集介绍 02:35 施罗德时代与德国新重商主义 04:12 东方政策(Ostpolitik)传统及德俄能源合作 06:03 从经济关系到依赖困境 08:18 北溪二号争议 10:58 经济互依的幻象 13:25 2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰及北溪管道事件 16:55 与中国的往来 18:54 及时化生产技术 20:48 深化对华关系 22:40 地缘政治的介入 23:50 中国崛起为直接工业竞争对手 28:25 德国何去何从？ (资料来源: Kaput by Wolfgang Münchau. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: 99 Luftballons by Nena Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

您正在收听的是Curiosity Curated，我是Zong。 数十年来，德国作为工业和创新的强国，一直是全球备受敬仰的经济巨人。然而如今，这一叙事已经改变。宝马和奔驰等曾代表工程卓越的德国汽车巨头，如今正在努力追赶中国电动汽车制造商。在硅谷和北京，人工智能竞赛正全速前进，而德国却只能在一旁观望。在本系列中，我们将通过Wolfgang Münchau的著作《德国奇迹的终结》，来深入理解这个工业强国为何以及如何面临着沦为昨日辉煌的风险。 Wolfgang是一位德国记者，曾任《金融时报》副主编，负责撰写欧盟经济周刊专栏。他指出，德国一直奉行"新重商主义"经济战略，过分追求实物商品的出口顺差。这种做法被他形象地描述为"在二十一世纪用二十世纪的技术，靠着十九世纪的企业，追求十八世纪的法国贸易政策。" "新重商主义"体系建立在政府与企业的紧密合作关系之上，它常常让产业利益凌驾于国家政治之上。这一体系不仅抵制创新变革，还坚持实行保守的财政政策和贸易保护主义。这种做法最终导致德国过度依赖俄罗斯和中国等特定国家，形成了重大的经济脆弱性。这不只是一项单一政策，而是一个获得德国各大政党支持的系统性体制。 在本集最终章节中，我们将探讨德国经济模式面临的两大关键挑战：愈发不可持续的出口导向型经济，以及债务刹车政策对重要投资的限制。随着全球格局朝向新的技术和政治现实演进，这些根植于德国秩序自由主义传统的结构性问题正日益凸显。 00:35 本集介绍 02:40 工业依赖 04:00 庞大且持续的经常账户盈余 06:32 以铁律稳定为基石的宏观经济政策 10:14 债务刹车 13:52 欧债危机时期的经济奇迹 15:30 法德两国分歧与隐患 (资料来源: Kaput by Wolfgang Münchau. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: 99 Luftballons by Nena Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

You are listening to Curiosity Curated. I am Zong. "The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime." These chilling words by British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey on the eve of World War I capture the gravity of a moment that plunged the world into darkness. August 1914 marked the beginning of a conflict so devastating, so transformative, that its echoes still reverberate a century later. In this episode, we examine how the dangerous mix of interlocking geopolitical alliances, fervent nationalism, and imperial ambitions transformed Europe into a powder keg by the summer of 1914. We'll explore why economic integration and trade alone proved insufficient safeguards for peace when faced with the overwhelming forces of nationalist fervor, security concerns, and political ambitions. Our journey draws from several seminal works: Barbara Tuchman's Pulitzer Prize-winning The Guns of August, which masterfully chronicles Europe's descent into war; Harvard University JFK School of Government professor Graham Allison's Destined for War, illuminating the dynamics between rising and established powers; and English Nobel Peace Prize winner Sir Norman Angell’s The Great Illusion, a pre-war work arguing for the economic futility of war. By understanding how the interlocking system of alliances, combined with nationalist fervor and imperial ambitions, turned a local crisis into a global catastrophe, we'll uncover crucial yet forgotten lessons about the fragility of peace and the persistent dangers of great power rivalry, helping us understand today’s geopolitical competition among China, Russia, and the US. 00:18 Episode Intro 02:25 The Illusion of Peace Through Trade 05:29 Germany’s Economy Challenge to Great Britain 07:32 Kaiser Wilhelm II & Germany’s Place in the Sun 09:58 The Anglo-German Naval Arms Race 14:16 Historical Parallels: The Anglo-Dutch Wars 16:03 Trade as a Double-Edged Sword, Imperialism Expansion 17:58 The Geopolitical Tinderbox: Alliances as Chains of Obligations 23:38 Fervent Nationalism: the Driving Force of the Age 27:37 Military Plans: Blueprints for Disaster 29:54 Schlieffen Plan 31:49 Plan 17 32:42 Irony of Military Planning 33:49 The Final Steps to War 34:58 The Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand 36:09 July Crisis and Outbreak of War 49:12 The Lessons of August 1914 (Source: Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman, Destined for War by Graham Allison, The Great Illusion by Norman Angell. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: Na Mara by Steven Gutheinz Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

您正在收听的是Curiosity Curated，我是Zong。 "欧洲各地的明灯正在熄灭，在我们的有生之年恐怕再也看不到它们重新点亮了。"这句令人不寒而栗的话出自英国外交大臣爱德华·格雷爵士之口，是在第一次世界大战爆发前夕所说。这句话捕捉了那个将世界推入黑暗的历史转折点。1914年8月，一场前所未有的毁灭性冲突拉开序幕，其影响如此深远，以至于一个世纪后，其余震仍在继续。 在本集中，我们将探讨地缘政治联盟的错综复杂、民族主义的狂热以及帝国野心如何在1914年夏天将欧洲变成了一个火药桶。我们还将分析为什么经济一体化和贸易的力量，在面对民族主义狂热、国家安全顾虑和政治野心这些压倒性因素时，无法为和平提供足够的保障。 我们的探索将借鉴几部开创性的著作：由Barbara Tuchman著作的、获得普利策奖的八月炮火 （The Guns of August），它巧妙地记录了欧洲陷入战争的整个过程；哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授Graham Allison著作的注定一战（Destined for War），它阐明了新兴大国与守成大国之间的竞争关系；以及英国诺贝尔和平奖得主Norman Angell爵士著作的大幻觉（The Great Illusion），这部一战前的著作论证了经济相互依存使得战争变得毫无意义，但历史证明这一观点是错误的。 通过探究地缘政治联盟体系、民族主义狂热和帝国野心如何交织在一起，将局部危机演变为全球灾难，我们将重新探索关于和平之脆弱以及大国竞争所带来持续危险的重要教训。这些历史启示有助于我们理解当今中国、俄罗斯和美国之间的地缘政治竞争。 00:19 本集介绍 02:26 通过贸易实现和平的幻想 04:49 德国崛起对英国经济霸权的挑战 06:35 威廉二世与德意志帝国追寻阳光下的地位 08:36 英德海军军备竞赛 12:10 历史先例：英荷战争 13:34 贸易的双刃剑与帝国扩张 15:07 地缘政治火药桶：错综复杂的联盟责任链 19:36 狂热民族主义：那个时代的驱动力 22:55 军事计划：走向灾难的蓝图 24:47 德国施里芬军事计划 26:29 法国17号军事计划 27:09 一战前军事计划的讽刺之处 28:05 走向战争的最后步骤 28:58 斐迪南大公遇刺事件 29:56 七月危机与一战的爆发 40:55 1914年8月的历史教训 (Source: Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman, Destined for War by Graham Allison, The Great Illusion by Norman Angell. For any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: Na Mara by Steven Gutheinz Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo

You are listening to Curiosity Curated. I am Zong. History is filled with moments where catastrophe was narrowly avoided, where the threads of fate unraveled just enough to spare us from unimaginable consequences. But what if those threads held the weight of entire civilizations, the potential to extinguish millions of lives in an instant? For over 75 years, humanity has lived under a shadow, a specter of annihilation unlike any other. The weapons we built to protect us, to deter conflict through the terrifying logic of mutually assured destruction, have also become the very instruments that could bring about our demise. On January 23, 1961, in Goldsboro, North Carolina, what began as a routine flight of a B-52 bomber became a harrowing race against time. A mid-air accident sends the bomber spiraling toward the ground, its deadly cargo - two hydrogen bombs - threatening to unleash their terrifying force. The world holds its breath, unaware of how close it came to the precipice. The Goldsboro incident exemplifies the fragile reality of our nuclear history—one marked by accidents, near-misses, and the constant threat of catastrophic miscalculation. Following Eric Schlosser's book "Command and Control” and Serhii Plokhy’s “Nuclear Folly”, this episode explores pivotal nuclear accidents and close calls since World War II that could have reshaped human history. These events highlight not only the devastating power at our fingertips but also the vital importance of safety protocols and clear communication in averting disaster. It's a subject that forces us to confront the chilling reality that despite decades without nuclear war, humanity has teetered on the brink of annihilation on multiple occasions. 00:20 Episode Intro 02:36 Nuclear Deterrence 07:30 Mars Bluff Accident 11:10 Nuclear Weapon & Design Explained 20:40 The Goldsboro Accident 22:32 Greenland Thule Air Base Accident 23:40 Other Sealed-Pit Weapon Accidents 25:33 Three Basic Safety Principles, Resistance, and Fowler Letter 29:27 The Man Who Saved the World 32:54 Able Archer 83: When Exercise Nearly Became Reality 34:57 The Wrong Tape: NORAD's Close Call 37:32 The Cuban Missile Crisis: Nuclear Diplomacy on a Knife's Edge 49:00 Conclusion (Source: Command and Control by Eric Schlosser, Nuclear Folly by Serhii PlokhyFor any feedback, please contact: cur2zong@gmail.com) Opening Music: Vision by Steven Gutheinz Closing Music: Who Am I by Dario Lupo