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39【聊了什么】虽然总统拜登的支持率低迷，民主党却在刚刚结束的迷你中期选举中取得了比民调药好得多的结果。堕胎权作为焦点议题起到了怎样的作用，又对明年大选会有什么样的影响？我们来讨论一下!
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【时间轴】
- 00:40 什么是迷你中期选举？
- 01:20 2023 年迷你中期选举的主要结果
- 04:04 为什么会有迷你中期选举？
- 08:24 俄亥俄堕胎权入宪法公投
- 12:30 堕胎权之争的前景
- 25:30 支持大麻合法化的人和支持堕胎权的人并不很重合
- 26:11 肯塔基州州长连任，堕胎权之争的作用
- 29:21 堕胎权之争共和党为什么陷入被动？
- 31:54 弗吉尼亚州议会选举和文化战争
- 38:11 选民结构的变化对竞选的影响
- 44:15 拜登的民调表现为什么这么差?
- 49:33 拜登的年龄问题被夸大了，还是特朗普的年龄问题被低估了？
- 52:43 通涨/经济现状对选举的影响
- 56:15 今年迷你中期选举和明年大选的关系
【我们是谁】
美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。
美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。
我们的主播和嘉宾：
- Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者
- 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子
- Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。
本期节目由Talich制作，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是Talich。美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。
【 What We Talked About】Yes. 2023 is also an election year. Though Biden is not doing so well in the latest polls, Democrats have exceeded expectations in the past off-year elections. We discuss results of some of the high-profile races. How did abortion rights play into the results? How will the issue affect the general elections next year?
【Support Us】
If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:
Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanrouletteBusiness Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com
【Timeline】
- 00:40 What is a mini-midterm election?
- 01:20 Main outcome of 2023 mini-midterm election
- 4:04 Why did some states adopt mini-midterm elections?
- 8:24 Ohio’s initiative on abortion rights
- 12:30 The future of political fights on abortion rights
- 25:30 Pro-marijuana legalization and pro-abortion rights voters don’t exactly overlap
- 26:11 Kentucky governor's successful re-election and abortion rights in the state
- 29:21 Why is the Republican party playing defense when it comes to abortion rights
- 31:54 Virginia state legislature elections and the culture wars
- 38:11 How voter demographic changes affect elections
- 44:15 Why is Biden doing so badly in the polls?
- 49:33 Has Biden's age issue been exaggerated, or has Trump's age issue been underestimated?
- 52:43 The impact of inflation/economic situations on elections
- 56:15 What does the mini-midterm say about next year’s general election?
【Who We Are】
The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.
The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes.
In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.”
Our Hosts and Guests:
Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of informationLokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer
This episode is produced by Talich, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is Talich. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media.
2. 蓝州与红州对待堕胎议题的态度可谓各自走向极端，在蓝州共和党往往与反堕胎捆绑在一起而”丢城失地”，那么反之民主党是否也会在红州面临一样的问题？
3. 两党极化已经蔓延到教育领域，我猜测也许这就是最近关于“政治正确”话题在年轻人中逐渐抽象化的原因之一吧。
4. 一定程度上，选民积极度比选民结构更有影响力，那么民调还是否具有可信度、有多少的真实性就值得思考了。
24 年选举越来越有意思了，各种角度、各种信息杂糅，还得是美轮美奂有干货，赶紧下一期！