- 040 | 美国参众两院选举结果分析 Breaking Down the U.S. Congressional Election Results
【聊了什么 The What】 特朗普虽横扫七大摇摆州,共和党拿下两院的控制权,但共和党在众议院国会层面的优势远不及预期。在本期节目中,我们深入分析了这场选举中各方势力的消长:从加州缓慢的计票过程引发的制度争议,到约翰逊议长面临的党内挑战:从拉丁裔选民的投票取向之谜,到民主党在州级选举中的表现。 面对微弱的众议院优势和复杂的参议院政治生态,共和党能否顺利推进特朗普的政策议程?各州最高法院选举和地方政治格局的变化,又将如何影响未来的政治版图? 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴 The When】 00:22 概述2024年两院选举结果 01:24 为什么加州等地计票速度如此缓慢? 10:35 总统选举结果和参众两院结果的差异 21:30 特朗普内阁提名对国会席位的影响 23:45 约翰逊议长的前景及新众议院规则 31:37 新的共和党周期开始了吗? 42:07 探讨卢比奥离任后,德桑蒂斯对佛罗里达参议员任命的选择 46:15 参议院选情及共和党的结构性优势 53:19 参议院共和党和特朗普之间的关系 1:10:40 地方和州一级选举结果及其影响 01:21:40 即将到来的补选和2025年州长选举 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich:美国政治和文化历史爱好者 寄馀生:比较政治爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 Despite Trump's sweep of all seven swing states and Republican control of both chambers, their margin in the House proved far narrower than expected. In this episode, we delve into the shifting dynamics of this election: from controversies surrounding California's prolonged vote counting to Speaker Johnson's challenges within his party; from the enigma of Latino voting patterns to Democratic performance in state elections. With a precarious House majority and a complex Senate landscape ahead, can Republicans effectively advance Trump's policy agenda? How will state Supreme Court elections and evolving local political dynamics reshape America's political terrain? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:22 Overview of the 2024 Congressional election results 15:10 Why is vote counting so slow in California and other states? 35:25 Gap between presidential election results and Congressional outcomes 40:40 Impact of Trump's cabinet nominations on Congressional seats 45:50 Speaker Johnson's prospects and new House rules 52:30 Has a new Republican cycle begun? 1:03:50 DeSantis's options for Florida Senate appointment after Rubio's departure 1:08:45 Senate landscape and Republican structural advantages 1:14:20 Relationship between Senate Republicans and Trump 1:30:40 State and local election results and their implications 1:41:40 Upcoming special elections and 2025 gubernatorial races 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich:Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 寄馀生(Ji Yusheng): Comparative politics enthusiast Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 039 | 大选中的残障视角 Disabled Rights in Election
【聊了什么 The What】 本集播客录制于美国大选结果出来之前。 Lokin与残言片语主播仁慈讨论了为什么特朗普关于残障的种种言论都映射白人至上主义而让人感到不适,也聊到了美国著名的残障政治家有哪些。仁慈从残障视角讨论了及拜登退选风波中关于年龄和能力的争议。最后,仁慈和Lokin讨论了残障者在美国总统选举中的角色以及她们投票时遇到的挑战。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴 The When】 * 00:04:14 什么是能力健全中心主义(ableism)? * 00:07:24 罗斯福时代的残障隐藏 * 00:25:45 残障身份的自我认同与社会认同 * 00:37:21 John Fetterman与心理健康议题 * 00:42:38 人类脆弱性的政治意义 * 00:56:29 能力与职位匹配的讨论 * 01:11:43 残障选民面临的投票障碍 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 仁慈:残障者,残障研究者,过气网红。 Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。 杨一:旅英媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 This episode was recorded before the results of the U.S. election were announced. Mercy and Lokin explored why Trump’s various comments on disability reflect white supremacy and make people uncomfortable, and they also discussed notable disability advocates in U.S. politics. Mercy shared her perspective on the controversies surrounding age and capability in the context of Biden’s decision not to run. Finally, Mercy and Lokin talked about the role of disabled individuals in U.S. presidential elections and the challenges they face when voting. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 * 4:14 - Understanding ableism: What is it? * 7:24 - FDR era: Hiding disability in politics * 25:45 - Disability identity: Personal vs. social recognition * 37:21 - John Fetterman and mental health in politics * 42:38 - The political significance of human vulnerability * 56:29 - Debating ability-role fit in leadership * 1:11:43 - Voting barriers for disabled citizens 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Mercy: Person with disability, disability studies researcher, ex-influencer. Lokin:A law student in the United States, soon to become a litigation attorney in New York. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 038 | 特朗普2.0时代的媒体 American media in the Trump 2.0 Era
【聊了什么】 2024年美国大选成为碎片化媒体全面登上主流舞台的标志性时刻。特朗普凭借即兴发挥和饱和式传播触及最广泛的选民,而哈里斯则押注高制作水准的保守媒体策略。然而,事实证明,特朗普的打法更加奏效,进一步巩固了右派的传播优势。 右派媒体多年来精心构建忠实的受众群体和完整的生态系统,而左派却在整合声音和扩大影响力方面表现乏力。左派是否需要一个自己的 Joe Rogan 来打造更具凝聚力的宣传机器? 随着特朗普2.0时代的来临,传统媒体正在面临前所未有的生存危机。“Pivot to center”的策略是大势所趋,还是一场徒劳的挣扎? 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:02:15 碎片化媒体如何定义2024选举战场?网红大选还是播客大选? 00:04:45 特朗普的媒体战术:饱和式即兴传播 00:19:30 哈里斯的媒体战术:传统的广播式传播 00:27:35 新媒体崛起后的政治讨论:门槛降低还是生态割裂? 00:47:45 保守派派媒体生态的成功:左派是否需要自己的 Joe Rogan? 01:06:40 主流媒体的未来:Pivot to center 的可能性与传统媒体的生存危机 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 杨一:旅英媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 The 2024 U.S. election marks a watershed moment, signaling the full ascent of fragmented media into the mainstream. Donald Trump utilized improvisation and saturation tactics to capture the widest possible audience, while Kamala Harris embraced a more traditional approach, prioritizing high production value and polished messaging. Ultimately, Trump’s strategy proved more effective, further entrenching the dominance of right-wing media. For years, right-wing outlets have painstakingly cultivated a loyal base and a robust ecosystem, leaving the left grappling with challenges in unifying its narrative and extending its reach. Does the left need its own Joe Rogan—a singular voice to anchor a cohesive messaging machine? As the Trump 2.0 era unfolds, legacy media faces an existential crossroads. Is the “pivot to center” an unavoidable recalibration, or merely a desperate bid to remain relevant in a media landscape reshaped by decentralization and innovation? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:02:15 - How is fragmented media defining the battleground of the 2024 election? An influencer election or a podcast election? 00:04:45 - Trump's media tactics: Saturated improvisational messaging 00:19:30 - Harris's media tactics: Traditional broadcast-style communication 00:27:35 - Political discourse after the rise of new media: Lowering barriers or fragmenting the ecosystem? 00:47:45 - The success of the conservative media ecosystem: Does the left need its own Joe Rogan? 01:06:40 - The future of mainstream media: The possibility of pivoting to the center and the survival crisis of legacy media 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast Yang Yi: Journalist based in London 【拓展链接】 杨一的明信片 | Yang Yi | Substack https://yang1989yi.substack.com/ 杨一的小红书 - 个人页 (xiaohongshu.com) https://www.xiaohongshu.com/user/profile/5f79bb4b000000000100a036 变革中的美国媒体 https://podcast.theamericanroulette.com/episodes/shifting-american-media-landscape 播客如何深度介入美国大选 https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/672de24af373fe5d4db8c761 Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 037 | 无时差 x 美轮美换:特朗普2.0时代来临,他将怎样影响美国和世界?
【聊了什么】 王浩岚做客友台《无时差研究所》,回顾了大选结果,也一起展望未来,从短中长时期,具体聊聊或许将有哪些转变即将发生。 欢迎在各平台关注《无时差研究所》。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢《美轮美换》并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 无时差研究所原文案 【Insider】2024年咱球最重要的政治事件之一美国大选暂时落下帷幕,本着「往者不可谏,来者犹可追」的宗旨,本期节目特别邀请美国政治长期观察者岚师和美国法律博士王瑞恩,不但回顾此次大选,更一起展望未来,从短中长时期,具体聊聊或许将有哪些转变即将发生。 主播 / 王妈妈 珂珂 嘉宾 / 王浩岚(播客:美轮美换) 王瑞恩(知乎:王瑞恩) 音频剪辑 / 珂珂 Shownotes / 王妈妈 接下来你将听到: ⭕️ 大选浅浅复盘:最为比烂的一届,还是游戏全新升级? -「粮食和蔬菜」大战身份政治:大选之中,有哪些「情理之中」和「意料之外」 -马斯克的「贿选」行为是「以身入局、胜天半子」,还是「礼崩乐坏、斯文扫地」? -摇摆州走向何处:翻红的州,未来四年会越来越红吗? -今天的川大X胜怎么样了:美国大选概念股后续走势 ⭕️ 超短期前瞻:交接棒时分,还存在哪些变数? -作为史上第一个以被定罪的重罪犯身份胜选的总统候选人,特朗普多大可能会在狱中宣誓就职? -一个脑洞:如果特朗普就职前遇刺身亡,那么谁会就任总统,哈里斯还是万斯? ⭕️ 中期展望:那些「承诺」,或许还在风中飘 -通货膨胀、非法移民、俄乌问题、……,这些「硬茬子」恐怕落得一地鸡毛 -「我真的有一头牛」:大选结果对留学生、海外华人的影响 ⭕️ 长远影响:美国政治老几样,还能整出什么活? 最高法院九人天团是否会迎来新成员,这会是保守派的版本强势期吗? 吃汉堡的男人最好命:五合一的特朗普会让所谓「新罗马」走上旧罗马的老路? 一个彩蛋,2016年二位write-in候选人王瑞恩和王妈妈的竞选主张: 嘉宾王瑞恩有言,大选逐鹿、一时胜负,不过是大潮中的小小涟漪。在诸多情理之中和意料之外之间,咱们普通人既要把握其意义,意识到大洋彼岸的蝴蝶可以在自己的生活中扇起风暴;也要学会适度保持钝感,不妨采取调侃、看乐子心态抽离出来,通过解构实现祛魅。 看政治难免有点emo?点个外卖犒劳自己一下吧! 现在在「饿了么」小程序中搜索「无时差研究所」,将会看到满20减5元的主播红包,每个ID每天可以领取三次,领取后当日有效。走过路过别错过哦! 欢迎关注「无时差研究」所同名小红书、微博 如何加入听友群? 微信公众号搜索「无时差研究所」,后台回复「入群」,扫描小助手二维码就可以啦! “每一次准备播客的过程,都带我们走到了某一个小小议题的门口,而每个嘉宾都是一把钥匙,ta 领着我们看到了全新的、更大的世界,ta 让我对世界多了一些了解,即便每次都有一点点,它都成为了我们生命里的一个小小刻度,也希望它也能帮助到你~” 如果你喜欢我们,欢迎关注无时差研究所同名公众号给我们送来你的心意哦!同时欢迎在全平台搜索并订阅无时差研究所。 Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 036 | 北冥有鱼 x 美轮美换:美国大选——精神海啸还是隔岸观火?
【聊了什么】 2024年美国大选刚刚落幕。四年一次的大选不再仅仅是公共政治实践的战场,也愈加变成个人心理的大型试炼场。在2016年开始的每次大选期间,约有60%到70%的美国人报告说他们的焦虑明显上升,有更多的恐惧感,更容易发怒和失眠。有超过四分之一的美国公民声称他们有了更多的压力应激行为,比如抽烟喝酒和情绪性暴食。 大选引发的精神压力也渗入了最私密的心理咨询室的空间——在美国大选期间,很多人进入到心理咨询室讨论大选对他们生活的影响。作为保持中立的咨询师和被政治影响的普通人,这样的双重身份也给心理咨询师带来了许多挑战。 本期小华和《北冥有鱼》播客的主播朝朝和卡其一起,一起畅聊当大选政治渗入私密的情感空间,我们该如何理解与应对。 【注:本集播客录制于大选前两天】 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 2:45 如何应对这一届选举的未知感 10:47 周围人对于选举的情绪反应 15:55 对美国政治的“后知后觉”: 政治与作为外国人的生活也息息相关 22:42 随着两极分化的逐渐严重,如何和与我们政治观点完全不同的人相处? 37:40 对于基本事实的共识可以撑起我们与不同观念的人对话的空间吗? 43:05 如何理解对于有移民创伤却依然支持反移民政策的人的立场 49:45 心理咨询的空间是一个可以让我们反思对于政治的情绪反应更深层的来源 54:15 来自同温层朋友的支持是应对选举焦虑和政治性抑郁的有力方法吗? 57:46 咨询师如何在咨询中和来访讨论政治议题和看见来访情绪背后的压抑和脆弱 1:05:45 我们该如何应对选举焦虑和政治抑郁? 1:14:05 面对选举结果可能会有的“信仰崩塌”,应该如何调整心态? 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 北冥有鱼是一档心理学播客,主播是两个在美国的临床心理学家,每期从心理学的视角探索内心世界和不同领域观点的碰撞。 Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 035 | 2024美国大选结果初步分析 Takeaways on Trump's Win
【聊了什么】 在总统大选中,特朗普预计将获得312张选举人票,战胜了获得226张选举人票的哈里斯,将成为第47任美国总统。同时,共和党获得了参议院的控制权,大概率也会赢下众议院。 我们和看理想在选举日第二天的早上进行了一场直播,对结果进行了简单的初步分析。这期播客是这场直播的剪辑版。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作,欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 [image.png] 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:58 本次大选结果有猜到吗?依据的是什么? 06:20 身处美国当地,哪个时间点预示特朗普胜选?有这个节点吗? 09:34 民主党的"崩盘",是性别因素/阶层因素吗? 16:00 本次大选,在美普通民众的情绪如何?气氛怎样? 21:21 特朗普主义和特朗普是如何一步步走到今天的?特朗普与共和党,谁更有主导性? 27:01 马斯克对特朗普竞选真有帮助吗? 33:56 大选结果已出,那未来会如何:赴美更难?移民?战争走向? 38:39 若"三权皆红",未来四年的局势会风起云涌吗? 43:44 "历史的上升,是螺旋性的;历史的前进像钟摆,偶尔往左也偶尔往右" 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华:媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 In the presidential election, Trump is projected to win 312 electoral votes, defeating Harris who received 226 electoral votes, and will become the 47th President of the United States. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has gained control of the Senate and is likely to win the House of Representatives as well. We did a livestream with Vistopia the morning after Election Day, providing an initial analysis of the results. This podcast is an edited version of that livestream. This episode is co-produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:58 Did you anticipate this election outcome? What was your reasoning? 06:20 From your perspective in the US, was there a defining moment that signaled Trump's victory? 09:34 Is the Democratic Party's collapse attributed to gender or class factors? 16:00 What's the current mood and atmosphere among average Americans following this election? 21:21 How did Trump and Trumpism evolve to where they are today? Who holds more influence - Trump or the Republican Party? 27:01 Has Musk's support made a real impact on Trump's campaign? 33:56 With the results now in, what lies ahead: Changes in US policies? Immigration? Global conflicts? 38:39 With potential Republican control of all three branches, how turbulent will the next four years be? 43:44 "History moves in spirals; like a pendulum, swinging sometimes left, sometimes right" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/2020-election-trump-win-analysis/ Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 034 | 2024美国大选日观选指南 2024 Election: What to Watch
【聊了什么】 本期播客的主题是,如何像一个竞选专家一样看大选出票。 美国大选将在周二举行,周二晚上就开始出票。这期节目,我们来聊聊的唱票和出票过程,为什么有的州出票快,有的州出票慢,有的州先出支持民主党的票,有的州先出支持共和党的票,有的州会半夜扔出天量选票,有的州出票会像挤牙膏一样。外行看热闹,内行看门道,如何从出票的过程中早早就看出今年大选的走势,把握本次大选的动向。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: [IMG_4636.JPG] 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:00:42 周六 Ann Selzer 的艾奥瓦民调的指导意义 00:21:39 如何看大选投票 00:25:47 佛罗里达 00:42:17 佐治亚 00:46:57 北卡 00:51:37 宾夕法尼亚 00:56:49 密歇根 01:01:14 威斯康星 01:05:59 新罕布什尔和弗吉尼亚 01:07:59 亚利桑那 01:15:22 内华达 01:27:15 在哪里看大选的实时播报 01:30:37 结语 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich:美国政治/文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 America heads to the polls this Tuesday. When the votes start rolling in, can you read the returns like a campaign pro, war room style? In this episode, we’ll talk about the vote-counting process: why do some states report results faster than others? What explains the “blue mirages” and “red mirages” in different jurisdictions? Why do certain states suddenly release a large number of votes in the middle of the night, and why others release results in a slow, steady trickle? For those who know what to look for, the vote-counting process reveals key insights into the election’s direction. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:00:42 How to understand Ann Selzer’s IA poll last Saturday 00:21:39 What to watch for on election night 00:25:47 Florida 00:42:17 Georgia 00:46:57 North Carolina 00:51:37 Pennsylvania 00:56:49 Michgan 01:01:14 Wisconsin 01:05:59 New Hampshire and Virginia 01:07:59 Arizona 01:15:22 Nevada 01:27:15 Where to watch latest update on election 01:30:37 Relax, it’s just another election 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/2024-us-election-swing-states-overview/ https://theamericanroulette.com/ann-selzer-iowa-final-poll-harris-lead/ 王浩岚的微信公众号《岚目》https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U9ZrOClRrgjj0nn1DX2FTg 端传媒实时更新 https://theinitium.com/article/2024-us-election-live-blog https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ https://www.nytimes.com/article/election-2024-results-needle.html Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 033 | 2024美国大选懒人包 A Guide to the 2024 Presidential Election
【聊了什么】 如果你刚刚开始关注大选,你的精神健康应该比美轮美换的几位主播要好一些。在大选前夕,我们帮你梳理了这场大选的关键时间点和重要议题:从拜登的意外退选到哈里斯的临危受命,从经济表现的党派差异到移民政策的困境,每个议题都折射出美国社会的深层分裂。 在摇摆州选情胶着、社会撕裂加剧的背景下,这场选举是否会重新定义美国政治?经济数据与民众感受之间的巨大鸿沟该如何弥合?移民政策的两难困境能否找到平衡点?当两党政治生态日益分化,社会撕裂愈发明显,美国的民主制度将面临怎样的挑战? 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时,你对最终结果的预测是什么呢?填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出,猜中即有机会参与抽奖,赢取网站会员,阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果,更可以跳过抽奖,直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:12 考前突击:为什么我们需要关注这场选举 00:09:07 特朗普封口费案的来龙去脉 00:29:30 特朗普遭遇暗杀未遂事件的影响 00:34:12 拜登退选与民主党的权力交接 00:48:20 副总统候选人万斯和沃尔兹的选择 00:52:50 经济议题:通胀、就业与选民感受的复杂性 01:01:25 移民议题与社会分化 01:12:39 堕胎权之争:从罗伊诉韦德案到现在 01:19:16 这次大选对美国民主制度的影响 01:26:33 七大摇摆州的选情分析:从蓝墙到阳光带 01:37:40 计票规则解读:为何结果可能需要等待数天 01:40:05 国会选举展望:参众两院的微妙平衡 01:44:16 问答 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 Lokin:美国法学院毕业生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈:青椒,政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 For those who are just tuning into the 2024 election discourse, your mental health is probably much better than our hosts – who have been breathlessly tracking every development for the past year. As the election day approaches, we have distilled all of the pivotal moments and critical issues that have defined this madhouse of a cycle - from Biden’s unexpected withdrawal to Kamala’s ascension, from partisan narratives on the state of the economy and immigration. Each flashpoint illuminates the deepening chasm of American society. As the battleground state odds remain locked in a coin toss, we try to ponder the fundamental questions: will this election yet again reshape American politics? How to bridge the chasm between the escalating social divisions? Why do the economic indicators tell different stories to the two parties? And as the two-party ecosystem grows increasingly polarized and social fabric continues to fray, what trials await America's democratic institutions? 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:12 Last-minute primer: why this election demands our attention 00:09:07 Trump hush money case: untangling the complex web 00:29:30 Implications of the attempted assassination on Trump 00:34:12 Biden's withdrawal and the democratic power transition 00:48:20 VP picks: a closer look at Vance and Walz 00:52:50 The economy: navigating inflation, employment, and voter sentiment 01:01:25 Immigration and social fractures: America's deepening divide 01:12:39 The abortion battle: from Roe v. Wade to present day 01:19:16 Impact on American democracy: examining institutional resilience 01:26:33 Battleground analysis: from the blue wall to the sun belt 01:37:40 Vote counting explained: why results may take a week 01:40:05 Congressional outlook: the delicate balance in both chambers 01:44:16 Q & A 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 032 | 不合时宜 x 美轮美换:美国离第一任女总统还有多远?
【聊了什么】 Lokin做客友台《不合时宜》,聊了本次大选中性别议题扮演的角色。 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时,你对最终结果的预测是什么呢?填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出,猜中即有机会参与抽奖,赢取网站会员,阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果,更可以跳过抽奖,直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢《美轮美换》并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 不合时宜原文案 【主播的话】 11月5日,美国即将迎来四年一度的大选投票,民主党候选人哈里斯对阵共和党候选人特朗普。如若哈里斯当选,她将成为美国历史上第一位女性总统。 美国大选向来都有很多解读视角:种族的,阶级的,经济的,地缘的,等等。在今年的选战中,我们注意到,性别视角尤为受到关注。在当今主要西方国家的大选中,似乎很少看到其他例子,像美国这样,性别议题占据如此重要甚至是中心的位置。哈里斯作为一名女性+少数族裔的候选人,性别身份是她尤其重要的身份,为女性权益呼吁是她的旗舰政策之一,特别是捍卫美国女性的自主堕胎权。与之相对的特朗普+万斯搭档,在性别议题上劣迹斑斑,前者身陷多起性犯罪,后者则在诸多场合发表厌女言论。今年进入竞选的节奏以来,已经出现很多与性别有关的热点事件。从特朗普身陷"封口费"官司,到Taylor Swift关于"Childless Cat Lady"的署名。性别分野会是决定美国大选走向的关键因素吗?如何从性别的视角理解今年的美国大选? 【本期主播】 王磬:微博@王磬 若含:微博@_R若含 【本期嘉宾】 Lokin: 《美轮美换》主播,美国法律从业者 *感谢蓝书屋对本集节目的特别支持 【本期剧透】 2:33 为什么要从性别视角探讨美国大选 11:57 为什么当今美国年轻男性更倾向共和党 18:22 性别成为大选中的突出议题:新现象还是历史的延续? 24:45 泰勒·斯威夫特的表态及其对单身女性投票的影响 30:49 比较经济与性别因素在本次大选中的影响 35:33 美国历史上反女权的女性政治家 45:59 当今美国的社会制度与文化是否有利于哈里斯 52:25 哈里斯在社交媒体中的性别策略 56:46 从性别到种族因素,哈里斯能否打破双重壁垒? 【"不合时宜全球成长计划"会员听众提问】 01:05:14 为什么堕胎权在美国格外重要?与其它地区对此话题的关注有什么差异? 01:09:34 女性议题在本次大选中占了多大的权重 【相关阅读】 播客中提到的相关研究: Why Young Men and Women are Drifting Apart www.economist.com 【本期音乐】 片头:Kevin MacLeod - Sad Drunken Party 片尾:Kevin MacLeod - Study and Relax 【Logo设计】刘刘(ins: imjanuary) 【文字】含之 【后期制作】方改则 【互动方式】 小红书@不合时宜 微博@不合时宜TheWeirdo 商务合作可发邮件至hibuheshiyi@126.com或微博私信 会员计划咨询可添加微信:hibuheshiyi2或发送邮件至hibuhehsiyi@gmail.com Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 031 | 我在美国做中文事实核查 Fact-Checking Chinese Misinformation and Disinformation
【聊了什么】 虚假信息和阴谋论是每个选举周期都绕不开的话题。在2024年大选期间,从特朗普在总统辩论中传播的“海地移民吃猫吃狗”谣言,到各类社交平台上层出不穷的不实信息,虚假信息的传播似乎达到了新的高度。 在这期节目中,我们邀请到专门从事中文事实核查工作的朋友,探讨在中文信息环境中如何应对选举虚假信息的挑战。我们将分析主要社交平台上的虚假信息传播现象,探究为什么第一代移民群体更容易成为目标受众,并提供了一些信息甄别建议。 《阴谋论、谎言与人工智能 右翼虚假信息如何反映2024年大选中的仇恨政治》报告链接:https://www.piyaoba.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024%E5%A4%A7%E9%80%89%E5%81%87%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A.pdf 【有奖竞猜】 大选进入倒计时,你对最终结果的预测是什么呢?填写表单告诉我们你认为谁将胜出,猜中即有机会参与抽奖,赢取网站会员,阅读我们对美国政治和选举的深度报道。若你能精准预测国会两院及摇摆州的结果,更可以跳过抽奖,直接获得美轮美换年度会员资格。 竞猜问卷 → https://forms.office.com/r/KC7ncPhMAf 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:02:24 事实核查工作的背景、日常流程和优先级判断 00:05:50 中文虚假信息传播渠道的变迁 00:12:53 2024大选中文假新闻的主要叙事方向 00:18:07 AI技术如何改变虚假信息传播方式 00:37:13 制造和传播虚假信息的不同动机 00:40:17 事实核查的意义是什么 00:50:02 如何识别虚假信息:一些建议 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 Jinxia:美国中文事实核查机构“辟谣吧”负责人 【 What We Talked About】 Misinformation and disinformation remain an unavoidable topic in every election cycle. During the 2024 election season, the spread of false information appears to have reached unprecedented levels — from Trump promoting the "eating dogs and cats" conspiracy during the presidential debate to the flood of misinformation across social media platforms. In this episode, we talk with a fact-checker specializing in Chinese-language content to explore how to tackle election misinformation in Chinese media spaces. We'll examine the spread of false information across major social platforms, investigate why first-generation immigrants are particularly susceptible to becoming targeted audiences, and share tips for distinguishing fact from fiction. Report: CONSPIRACY THEORIES, LIES, & A.I.: How right-wing disinformation in the Chinese American community reflect the politics of hate in the 2024 election https://caasf.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/CAA-Report-Conspiracy-Theories-Lies-and-AI-1.pdf 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:02:24 Understanding fact-checking: background, process, and priorities 00:05:50 Shifts in Chinese-language misinformation channels 00:12:53 Key narratives of Chinese misinformation in the 2024 election 00:18:07 AI's impact on misinformation dissemination 00:37:13 Understanding motivations behind misinformation 00:40:17 Why fact-checking matters 00:50:02 Spotting misinformation: a practical guide 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Jinxia: Program Manager of Digital Engagement at Chinese for Affirmative Action Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 030 | 我在宾州为哈里斯拜票 Canvassing For Kamala in Pennsylvania
【聊了什么】 在美国大选最后冲刺阶段,地面动员正在上演着一场场关键战役。在摇摆州的街区中,无数拜票团队正在进行着最基层的选民动员——他们挨家挨户地敲门,努力说服更多支持者能够走出家门投票,或及时寄出自己的选票。 两位来自纽约的华人青年,选择走进关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚,亲身参与这场草根民主的实践。这种面对面敲门拜访的动员方式,不仅是选举工作中的重要一环,更成为了解当代美国社会分裂现状、倾听不同群体声音的独特窗口。 在挨家挨户的拜票过程中,他们遇见了形形色色的美国选民:有态度坚定的特朗普支持者,也有思虑再三的中间派;有对政治充满热情的活跃分子,也有对选举冷眼旁观的工薪阶层…… 在本期播客中,这两位华人青年将分享他们在宾州大选一线的亲身经历,带我们走进一个真实的美国政治图景。 嘉宾提到的拜票组织: UNITE HERE Electoral Politics Working Families Party Seed the Vote 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:10 两位年轻的海外华人志愿者分享参与拜票的初衷 00:16:48 拜票组织的运作机制与培训流程 00:28:34 费城市区vs郊区:不同社区的政治氛围 00:33:22 一位黑人单亲妈妈的投票抉择 00:52:08 如何与不同立场的选民进行有效对话 01:08:34 家庭内部的政治分歧 01:37:27 如何加入拜票行动:主要组织与平台介绍 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 可达鸭:海外青年社群组织者、行动者 蕨菜:女权行动者 【 What We Talked About】 As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, ground mobilization has emerged as a critical battleground. Across swing state neighborhoods, canvassing teams are executing grassroots voter outreach—knocking on doors, urging supporters to head to the polls, and ensuring mail-in ballots are submitted on time. Two young Chinese activists from New York ventured into the key battleground state of Pennsylvania to immerse themselves in this exercise of grassroots democracy. Their door-to-door canvassing experience offers more than just insights into campaign operations—it provides a unique window into America's social divisions and amplifies voices from across the political spectrum. Throughout their canvassing journey, they encountered the full spectrum of American voters: unwavering Trump supporters, thoughtful moderates weighing their options, passionate political activists, and working-class citizens disconnected from the political process. In this episode, these two young activists share their frontline experiences from Pennsylvania, offering a glimpse into the American political landscape. UNITE HERE Electoral Politics Working Families Party Seed the Vote 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:10 Two young overseas Chinese volunteers share their motivations for canvassing 00:16:48 How canvassing organizations operate and their training processes 00:28:34 Philadelphia urban vs suburban areas: Political atmosphere in different communities 00:33:22 A Black single mother's voting decision 00:52:08 How to have effective dialogues with voters of different political stances 01:08:34 Political differences within families 01:37:27 How to join canvassing efforts: Introduction to major organizations and platforms 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich:Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Psyduck: Community organizer and activist for overseas youth groups Bracken: Feminist activist Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 029 | 2024年美国大选民调还能信吗?Can We Still Trust 2024 Election Polls?
【聊了什么】 大选进入冲刺阶段,选举民调再次成为焦点。然而,过去几次选举中民调的频繁失准,让人不禁质疑:我们还能相信民调吗?在这期节目中,我们深入探讨了民调的方方面面,从民调的制作过程,到比较全国民调和摇摆州民调的可靠性。我们分析了近年来民调越来越不准的原因,探讨了2024年民调的新变化,并且分析了内部民调的准确性。 当然,今年民调到底准不准,要到11月5日之后才能见分晓了。 美轮美换的网站上也推出了对最新民调、民调均值、选举预测的每日追踪,欢迎访问网站,并订阅成为免费或付费会员。 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【支持我们】 [IMG_4369.JPG] 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:00 各位主播看民调的姿势 00:04:51 民调是怎么做出来的? 00:13:40 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调? 00:17:48 为什么近年的民调会不准? 00:26:40 2024年民调做了什么调整? 00:32:58 为什么做民调这么难? 00:41:19 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗? 00:44:48 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗? 00:48:45 内部民调靠谱吗? 00:52:50 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应 1:04:10 选举预测模型靠谱吗? 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾: Talich:美国政治和文化历史爱好者 Lokin:美国法学院毕业生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈:青椒,政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 With the election in its final stretch, polls are once again in the spotlight. But after a string of high-profile misses in recent elections, many are asking: can we still trust the polls? In this episode, we dive deep into the world of political polling, examining everything from how polls are conducted to the reliability of national vs. swing state polls. We explore why polls have become less accurate in recent years, what changes pollsters are making for 2024, and whether internal campaign polls offer any better insight. Of course, the true test of this year's polls won't come until after Election Day on November 5th. Join us for a critical look at the state of political polling in America today. The American Roulette website has launched daily tracking of the latest polls, poll averages, and election predictions. Visit our site and consider becoming a free or paid subscriber for access to these insights. https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:00 The hosts' approach to interpreting polls 00:04:51 The mechanics of polling: How are they conducted? 00:13:40 Landlines in modern polling: Why do they persist? 00:17:48 Unpacking recent poll inaccuracies 00:26:40 Polling in 2024: Key adjustments and changes 00:32:58 The challenges of accurate polling 00:41:19 Trump and the polls: Potential for over or underestimation? 00:44:48 Swing state polls: A more reliable indicator? 00:48:45 Internal polls: Trustworthy or misleading? 00:52:50 Partisan responses to polling: Democrats vs. Republicans 1:04:10 Election prediction models: How reliable are they? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich:Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 https://theamericanroulette.com/us-election-2024-latest-polls-news-harris-trump/ https://www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 028 | 万斯与沃尔兹副总统辩论回顾 The First and Last Vance-Walz VP Debate
【聊了什么】 2024 年美国大选的最后一场辩论(如果特朗普之后不变卦的话),也是副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹和 J.D. 万斯的唯一一场辩论,美国东部时间 10 月 1 日晚 9 点在 CBS 的纽约市演播室举行。 本期播客中,我们回顾了共和党副总统候选人J.D.万斯与民主党副总统候选人蒂姆·沃尔兹之间的辩论。我们从辩论的总体观感出发,探讨公众反应与舆论评价之间的差异,并审视这场辩论在多大程度上聚焦于实质性的政策讨论。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:46 辩论总体观感 06:30 舆论和民众对辩论观感的差异 13:09 这是一场关注政策的辩论吗 17:21 这是万斯成为MAGA接班人的里程碑之战吗? 20:05 特朗普拯救了奥巴马医保? 24:28 极化环境下两党如何争取摇摆选民 28:03 万斯在堕胎问题上的回答 32:03 特朗普的民粹主义是如何征服共和党的 34:23 万斯的形象为何如此负面 38:33 两位副总统候选人辩论中的亮点 41:12 大选最后冲刺阶段的展望 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Lokin:美国法学院毕业生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈:青椒,政治行为研究者 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 The final debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle (barring any last-minute changes from Trump) took place on October 1st at 9 PM Eastern Time. Held in CBS's New York City studio, this marked the sole face-off between vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance. In this episode, we dissected the debate between Republican VP nominee J.D. Vance and his Democratic counterpart, Tim Walz. We start by sharing our overall impressions of the event, then delve into the disparity between public reaction and media commentary. A key focus of our discussion is how much the candidates engaged in substantive policy debate versus political rhetoric. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:46 Overall impressions of the debate 06:30 Gap between public reaction and media narrative of the debate 13:09 Was this truly a policy-focused debate? 17:21 Is this Vance's defining moment as a potential MAGA heir? 20:05 Did Trump inadvertently save the Obamacare? 24:28 Courting swing voters in a polarized political landscape 28:03 Vance's stance on the abortion issue 32:03 How Trump's populism reshaped the GOP 34:23 Unpacking Vance's negative public image 38:33 Key moments from both VP candidates during the debate 41:12 Final stretch: What to expect as Election Day approaches 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 027 | 忽左忽右的硅谷 Silicon Valley's Political Shift
【聊了什么】 近年来,硅谷这个传统的民主党堡垒正悄然发生变化。科技界的“右转”现象,以及马斯克和Marc Andreessen等大佬对特朗普的公开支持,似乎预示着一场政治地震。这是否反映了科技界对主流社会长期“敌意”的反弹? 在这期节目里,我们探讨了硅谷在即将到来的大选中的政治取向,AI革命下科技界政治光谱的变迁,以及源自科技圈的新兴政治话语及其在网络上的传播。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎加入我们的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-4封newsletter,可以加入会员社群,参加会员活动,并享受更多福利。 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 03:25 AI的浪潮引发政治语言的变革 08:17 回顾这几个月最近硅谷发生的“大佬右转,支持川普”的情况 13:27 Marc Andreessen和a16z对特朗普的公开支持,以及他的《科技乐观主义宣言》背后说了什么 21:00 华盛顿和硅谷之间撕裂从2016年开始不断加大 31:49 e/acc (有效加速主义)是什么?以及有哪些硅谷“cults”出现了? 40:40 什么是Marc Andreessen和Ben Horowitz的“The Little tech agenda (小型科技议程)”?他们如何看待AI 监管? 58:10 简析Peter Thiel对于特朗普的支持,以及他和JD Vance之间的历史 01:04:10 简析马斯克对于特朗普的公开支持 01:13:50 扎克伯格最近的态度:没有表态但是... 01:28:00 科技届的在公众面前的形象如何在2016年之后逐渐“崩坏”? 01:33:10 哈里斯和加州湾区的关系,以及科技圈对哈里斯的支持网“VC for Kamala” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾: 小华:媒体人,美政观察者 曹起曈:青椒,政治行为研究者 Afra: 在湾区生活工作的科技从业者 一闻:商业记者,曾驻旧金山报道科技行业 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 In recent years, Silicon Valley, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has been undergoing subtle changes. The tech industry's "right turn" and public support for Trump from prominent figures like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen seem to herald a political earthquake. Does this reflect a backlash from the tech world against long-standing "hostility" from mainstream society? In this episode, we explore Silicon Valley's political leanings in the upcoming election, the shifts in the tech industry's political spectrum amidst the AI revolution, and the emergence and spread of new political language originating from the tech sphere. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 03:25 How AI is transforming political language 08:17 Recent "rightward shift" of Silicon Valley leaders supporting Trump 13:27 Marc Andreessen and a16z's public support for Trump, and what his "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" reveals 21:00 The widening rift between Washington and Silicon Valley since 2016 31:49 What is e/acc (effective accelerationism)? And what Silicon Valley "cults" have emerged? 40:40 What is Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz's "Little Tech Agenda"? Their views on AI regulation 58:10 Brief analysis of Peter Thiel's support for Trump and his historical connection with J.D. Vance 01:04:10 Brief analysis of Elon Musk's public endorsement of Trump 01:13:50 Mark Zuckerberg's recent attitude: No statement, but... 01:28:00 How has the tech industry's public image gradually "collapsed" after 2016? 01:33:10 Kamala Harris's relationship with the Bay Area, and the tech circle's support network "VC for Kamala" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School Afra: Tech professional living and working in the Bay Area 一闻(Yiwen):Business reporter, with previous experience covering the tech sector while based in San Francisco The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【拓展链接】 Key Issues in the 2024 United States Presidential Election, https://fletcher.tufts.edu/news-events/news/key-issues-2024-united-states-presidential-election The Little Tech Agenda, https://a16z.com/the-little-tech-agenda/ The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ VCs for Kamala, https://www.vcsforkamala.org/ Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助
- 026 | 哈里斯与特朗普首场总统辩论回顾 The First Trump-Harris Presidential Debate
【聊了什么】 这个大选周期的第二场总统辩论、哈里斯与特朗普的首场正面交锋,于美国东部时间9月10日晚9点在费城的国家宪法中心举行。这场辩论,拉开了2024年大选最后的冲刺阶段。我们在辩论当晚在线上直播录制了本期节目,对双方的表现进行了点评。 因为技术原因,录音质量不够理想,烦请见谅。 本期节目由美轮美换和看理想联合制作,欢迎在看理想订阅《美国大选与世界转向》节目。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去: 欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 欢迎在看理想订阅收听《美国大选与世界转向》节目: https://www.vistopia.com.cn/detail/372 合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:57 辩论总体印象:主播认为谁赢了?辩论输赢会如何影响选情? 11:52 堕胎问题:对民主党有利的议题 19:17 辩论主持人的事实核查 21:44 特朗普对哈里斯的人身攻击 22:37 经济问题:双方都有经济学教授背书? 27:34 移民问题上双方的攻防 33:44 特朗普回避1月6号国会山暴乱问题 40:55 为何特朗普称呼塔利班头子稍显“亲密”? 48:06 泰勒·斯威夫特公开支持哈里斯,会有什么影响吗? 50:02 特朗普VS哈里斯 与 2016年特朗普VS希拉里,有何可比性? 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾: Lokin:美国法学院毕业生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师 王浩岚:美国政治爱好者,岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 曹起曈:青椒,政治行为研究者 【 What We Talked About】 The second presidential debate of this election cycle, and the first face off between Harris and Trump, took place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9 PM Eastern Time on September 10th. This debate marks the beginning of the final sprint for the 2024 election. We recorded this episode live online on the night of the debate, providing commentary on both candidates' performances. Due to technical issues, the audio quality is not ideal. We apologize for any inconvenience. This program is jointly produced by The American Roulette and Vistopia. Subscribe to "The U.S. Election and Global Shifts" program on Vistopia for more insights. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:57 Overall debate impression: Who won? How will the debate outcome affect the race? 11:52 Abortion: A favorable topic for Kamala Harris 19:17 Fact-checking by the debate moderators 21:44 Trump's personal attacks on Harris 22:37 Economic issues: Both sides backed by economics professors? 27:34 The exchange on immigration issues 33:44 Trump's avoidance of the January 6th Capitol riot question 40:55 Why did Trump address the Taliban leader in a seemingly "intimate" manner? 48:06 Taylor Swift's public endorsement of Harris: What impact might it have? 50:02 Trump vs. Harris compared to Trump vs. Hillary in 2016: What are the parallels? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助