【聊了什么】 2月20日，美国最高法院以6:3推翻了特朗普基于IEEPA（国际紧急经济权力法）征收的全部关税，判定"监管进口"不等于"征收关税"，税收权属于国会。但特朗普在判决出炉仅三小时后便签署新行政令，以贸易法第122条重新加征10%的全球关税。（录制期间，特朗普宣布将新增的10%关税提高到15%。） 本期我们讨论了：IEEPA到底是什么？最高法院的多数意见和反对意见分别说了什么？为什么多数派法官内部也吵成了好几派？特朗普的关税工具箱里还剩什么？1700亿的退税怎么退？以及这场判决对中期选举和美国经济意味着什么。 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年2月21日上午。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:48 IEEPA是什么？紧急状态权力的历史背景 05:25 核心法律问题："regulate importation"包不包含征收关税？ 08:45 最高法院多数意见：罗伯茨与"重大问题原则" 13:00 自由派的赞同意见 vs 戈萨奇46页无差别开炮 18:02 反对意见：托马斯的"王权论"与卡瓦诺63页全力护航 29:33 1700亿退税难题：退给谁？怎么退？ 34:37 特朗普的反击：122条与关税工具箱盘点 44:43 判决的实质影响：形式变了，关税没变 46:27 国会动态：共和党倒戈与退休潮中的内生反对派 58:01 经济大背景：GDP不及预期、通胀未降与中期选举压力 1:05:02 最高法院与特朗普：蜜月结束了吗？ 1:11:28 大法官人物分析：戈萨奇 vs 卡瓦诺 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 品达：美国政治观察人士 【 What We Talked About】 On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to strike down all tariffs imposed by Trump under IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), holding that "regulate importation" does not mean "impose tariffs" and that the power to tax belongs to Congress. But just three hours after the ruling, Trump signed a new executive order reimposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act. (During the recording of this episode, Trump announced an increase of the new 10% tariff to 15%.) In this episode, we discuss: What exactly is IEEPA? What did the majority and dissenting opinions say? Why were even the majority justices divided into several camps? What tools remain in Trump's tariff toolbox? How will $170 billion in tariff refunds be handled? And what does this ruling mean for the midterm elections and the U.S. economy? This episode was recorded on the morning of February 21, 2026 (U.S. time). 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:48 What is IEEPA? The history of emergency powers 05:25 The core legal question: Does "regulate importation" include imposing tariffs? 08:45 The majority opinion: Roberts and the Major Questions Doctrine 13:00 Liberal concurrence vs. Gorsuch's 46-page all-out attack 18:02 The dissent: Thomas's "royal prerogative" theory & Kavanaugh's 63-page defense 29:33 The $170 billion refund problem: Who gets it and how? 34:37 Trump strikes back: Section 122 and the tariff toolbox 44:43 Real-world impact: The form changed, the tariffs didn't 46:27 Congress reacts: Republican defections and a growing internal opposition 58:01 Economic backdrop: GDP misses expectations, inflation persists, and midterm pressure 1:05:02 The Supreme Court and Trump: Is the honeymoon over? 1:11:28 Justice profiles: Gorsuch vs. Kavanaugh 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Pinda：American political enthusiast Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 这期节目中，我们盘点了过去两周大大小小的美国政治新闻。明尼苏达移民执法危机迎来新进展，争议人物Bovino被撤职，Homan接管行动，但DHS内部的路线之争和拨款危机仍未平息；爱泼斯坦350万页文件解密持续发酵；特朗普因发布种族主义视频遭两党批评，支持率跌至新低。 与此同时，特朗普公开呼吁联邦接管地方选举，FBI在国家情报总监加巴德陪同下突袭富尔顿县选举中心；德州深红选区补选出现近30点的惊人翻转，中期选举信号初现；而华盛顿邮报裁员超300人、CEO被迫辞职，这家百年大报在贝索斯治下走向何方？ 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年2月7日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:53 明尼苏达移民执法危机后续：Bovino被撤职，Homan接管 04:05 DHS内部路线之争：ICE传统派 vs 边境巡逻队强硬派 08:46 政府内部泄露甩锅战和明州执法行动下一步走向 15:16 DHS拨款危机与政府部分关门 22:31 爱泼斯坦350万页文件解密 25:42 特朗普发布种族主义视频风波 30:25 特朗普呼吁联邦接管选举与FBI突袭富尔顿县 36:49 SAFE Act：共和党推动投票身份证明立法 42:36 美国去中心化选举制度 47:31 选区重划：加州、弗吉尼亚与各州最新动态 54:53 新泽西第11选区初选与AIPAC翻车 01:02:27 德州深红选区补选翻转 01:09:13 德州民主党参议院初选风波：Talarico的"mediocre black man"争议 01:17:02 TrumpRx卖药网站与特朗普的经济牌 01:22:00 持枪权争议 01:25:23 华盛顿邮报大裁员与CEO辞职 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 In this episode, we recap the big and small stories in American politics from the past two weeks. The Minnesota immigration enforcement crisis saw new developments as the controversial Bovino was removed and Homan took over operations, but internal power struggles within DHS and a looming funding crisis remain unresolved. The release of 3.5 million pages of Epstein files continues to generate shockwaves. Trump drew bipartisan criticism after posting a racist video, with his approval ratings hitting new lows. Meanwhile, Trump openly called for federal takeover of local elections, and the FBI raided the Fulton County election center with Director of National Intelligence Gabbard on site. A deep-red Texas state senate district saw a stunning nearly 30-point swing in a special election, offering early signals for the midterms. And the Washington Post laid off over 300 newsroom employees as its CEO was forced to resign — raising the question of what lies ahead for this storied institution under Bezos's ownership. This episode was recorded on the evening of February 7, 2026 (US time). 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:53 Minnesota immigration enforcement update: Bovino removed, Homan takes over 04:05 Internal DHS power struggle: ICE old guard vs Border Patrol hardliners 08:46 Internal leaks, blame games, and what's next for Minnesota operations 15:16 DHS funding crisis and partial government shutdown 22:31 3.5 million pages of Epstein files declassified 25:42 Trump posts racist video, draws bipartisan backlash 30:25 Trump calls for federal takeover of elections; FBI raids Fulton County 36:49 SAFE Act: GOP pushes voter ID legislation 42:36 America's decentralized election system 47:31 Redistricting updates: California, Virginia, and beyond 54:53 New Jersey CD-11 primary and AIPAC's backfire 01:02:27 Stunning swing in deep-red Texas special election 01:09:13 Texas Democratic Senate primary: Talarico's "mediocre black man" controversy 01:17:02 TrumpRx website and Trump's economic play 01:22:00 Gun rights debate 01:25:23 Washington Post mass layoffs and CEO resignation 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 2026年1月，接连两名美国公民在明尼苏达街头死于联邦移民执法人员枪下。37岁的Renee Nicole Good被ICE特工射杀，另一位37岁的护士Alex Pretti则死于边境巡逻队之手。 本期节目，我们聊了这场风暴的起源（索马里社区欺诈丑闻的发酵）、ICE和边境巡逻的政治秀式移民执法、为什么联邦执法人员似乎不受制约、以及民众抗议与精英沉默之间的巨大落差。五年前发生在明尼阿波利斯的乔治·弗洛伊德事件曾点燃全美，如今同一座城市再次成为风暴眼，但这一次，汹涌的民意能够改变什么吗？ 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年1月24日下午。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:03 两起枪击事件：Renee Nicole Good与Alex Pretti之死 02:39 风暴起源：索马里社区欺诈丑闻如何发酵 08:50 为什么是明尼苏达？ 11:40 特朗普移民执法2.0：境内抓捕的运动化转向 16:45 移民执法：逮捕、拘押、遣返的区别 19:58 ICE vs 边境巡逻队：两种执法风格的内部张力 24:41 三十年僵局：为什么移民改革无法推进 34:20 ICE简史：911后诞生的"超级部门" 40:25 法律分析：联邦豁免权与JD Vance的谎言 52:22 民意反弹：为什么这次不像2020年？ 59:30 政治困局：汹涌的民意能改变什么？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，纽约诉讼律师 小肖：纽约律师 【 What We Talked About】 In January 2026, two American citizens were shot and killed by federal immigration enforcement officers on the streets of Minnesota. Renee Nicole Good, 37, was killed by an ICE agent; Alex Pretti, also 37 and a nurse, was killed by Border Patrol. In this episode, we discuss the origins of this crisis (the viral spread of a Somali community fraud scandal), the spectacle-driven immigration enforcement of ICE and Border Patrol, why federal agents seem to operate without accountability, and the stark contrast between public protests and elite silence. Five years ago, the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis ignited a nationwide movement. Now, the same city finds itself at the eye of another storm—but this time, can public outrage change anything? This episode was recorded on the evening of January 24, 2026, U.S. time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:03 The deaths of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Praty 02:39 Origins of the crisis: How the Somali community fraud scandal went viral 08:50 Why Minnesota? 11:40 Trump's immigration enforcement 2.0: The campaign-style turn in interior arrests 16:45 Understanding immigration enforcement: Arrests, detention, and deportation 19:58 ICE vs. Border Patrol: Tensions between two enforcement styles 24:41 Thirty years of gridlock: Why immigration reform keeps failing 34:20 A brief history of ICE: The post-9/11 "super agency" 40:25 Legal analysis: Federal immunity and JD Vance's lie 52:22 Public backlash: Why this time isn't like 2020 59:30 Political impasse: Can public outrage change anything? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer 小肖 (Xiao Xiao)：NY lawyer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 距离特朗普2025年1月20日第二次入主白宫已经过去了整整一年。站在这个时间点上，我们回顾了特朗普2.0执政周年的赢家与输家。 生活成本问题没有明显缓解，"可负担性"成为年度词汇。ICE在蓝州社区发起的移民抓捕行动引发混乱和悲剧，让共和党在移民议题上的民意优势持续下滑。奥巴马医改增强补贴到期、USAID被拆除、关税政策反复——这些政策的连锁反应正在显现。没有了第一任期的"减速带"，特朗普"放飞自我"的一年里，格陵兰岛从抽象的玩笑变成了认真的外交议程。他能实现"名垂青史"的野望吗？ 迎来特朗普2.0第二年和中期选举年，特朗普又会如何改变美国和世界新秩序？ 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年1月18日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:01:46 特朗普 2.0 一周年：特朗普天性的释放 00:06:06 消失的“减速器” 00:09:30 卢比奥的强势崛起与国安会的弱化 00:21:02 生活成本危机与移民政策的社会反弹 00:38:03 输家盘点 51:18 查理·柯克遇刺：右翼内部的分裂与 MAGA 接班人之战 01:02:34 特朗普式的“公私合营”与政府权力的集中 01:27:12 中期选举趋势、草根组织崛起与新的世界秩序 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 It has been exactly one year since Trump returned to the White House on January 20, 2025. At this juncture, we take stock of the winners and losers of Trump 2.0's first year in office. The cost of living crisis remains unresolved, with "affordability" becoming the word of the year. ICE raids in blue-state communities have sparked chaos and tragedy, eroding Republican advantages on immigration. The expiration of Obamacare subsidies, the dismantling of USAID, and the back-and-forth on tariffs—the ripple effects of these policies are now coming into view. Without the "guardrails" of his first term, Trump has spent a year unrestrained. Greenland has gone from an absurd joke to a serious foreign policy agenda. Will he achieve his ambition of "cementing his legacy"? As Trump 2.0 enters its second year—and a midterm election year—how will he continue to reshape America and the new world order? This episode was recorded on the evening of January 18, 2026, U.S. time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:01:46 Trump 2.0 at One Year: Unleashing Trump's True Nature 00:06:06 The Disappearing "Guardrails" 00:09:30 Rubio's Rise and the Weakening of the NSC 00:21:02 The Cost of Living Crisis and Backlash Against Immigration Policy 00:38:03 Losers Roundup 51:18 Charlie Kirk's Assassination: Rifts Within the Right and the MAGA Succession Battle 01:02:34 Trump's "Public-Private Partnerships" and the Centralization of Government Power 01:27:12 Midterm Trends, Grassroots Organizing, and the New World Order 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接 The Links】 https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/07/01/nx-s1-5452513/trump-usaid-foreign-aid-deaths https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/01/stephen-miller-trump-white-house/685516/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/01/18/us/trump-deportation-numbers-immigration-crackdown.html Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么The What】 本期节目，Lokin与哲学家袁源、《疲惫娇娃》的主播一同过度解读了保罗·托马斯·安德森（Paul Thomas Anderson）很有嚼劲的新作《一战再战》。这部电影是让小杨“撇着嘴进去，真香着出来”的年度惊喜，也是袁源觉得十分“就这”的陈词滥调。我们从加缪的《反叛者》出发，探讨暴力革命的伦理困境：当“妇人之仁”成为罪行，对抽象理念的狂热是否必然以牺牲具体的人为代价？Perfidia是一个挑战观众道德底线的反英雄，还是一位被男性凝视和刻板印象所困的复杂女性？Perfidia式的、为“爽”而战的景观式革命的反面，是否是Sensei式的、根植于邻里互助的日常英雄主义？ For this episode, we invited philosopher Yuan Yuan and Lokin to join us in over-interpreting Paul Thomas Anderson’s chewy new film One Battle After Another. It’s a movie that some of us walked into with doubts and walked out of utterly charmed, while others find it to be a thoroughly “meh” bundle of clichés. Starting from Camus’s The Rebel, we dig into the ethical dilemmas of revolutionary violence: when “womanly compassion” becomes a crime, does fervor for an abstract ideal inevitably demand the sacrifice of concrete human lives? Is Perfidia a boundary-pushing anti-hero who defies our moral expectations, or a complex woman trapped within male gaze and stereotype? And if Perfidia’s spectacle-driven, pleasure-forward revolution is one end of the spectrum, is its opposite the Sensei style—an everyday heroism grounded in neighborly mutual aid? 【时间轴 The When】 * 00:00 电影《一战再战》剧情速览和第一印象 * 10:23 为何将60年代的革命美学平移到2008年让人“不买账”？ * 22:34 暴力革命的道德思辨：电影中的革命行动是否满足“正义的目标”、“必要性”与“相称性”？ * 31:33 Perfidia是刻板印象还是反英雄？ * 54:12 Willa打破父辈创伤的循环了吗？ * 58:03 “非盈利蛇头”Sensei和日常的英雄主义 * 67:07 对白人至上主义的辛辣讽刺 * 78:47 结局：这也能大团圆 * 00:00 Quick plot recap of One Battle After Another and our initial reactions * 10:23 Why does transplanting 1960s revolutionary aesthetics into 2008 feel so unconvincing? * 22:34 Moral reasoning around violent revolution: do the film’s actions satisfy “just cause,” “necessity,” and “proportionality”? * 31:33 Perfidia: sexualized or anti-hero? * 54:12 Does Willa break the cycle of her parents’ trauma? * 58:03 The “non-profit coyote” Sensei and the quiet heroism of the everyday * 67:07 A sharp satire of white supremacism * 78:47 The ending: …so this counts as a happy ending? 【拓展链接 The Links】 * Liberalism in Dark Times: The Liberal Ethos in the Twentieth Century * The Rebel: An Essay on Man in Revolt * Vineland 【支持疲惫娇娃】 如果喜欢这期节目并愿意想要给我们买杯咖啡： * 海外用户：https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm * 海内用户：https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm * 商务合作邮箱：cyberpinkfm@gmail.com * 商务合作微信：CyberPink2022 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: * Those Abroad: https://www.patreon.com/cyberpinkfm * Those in China: https://afdian.com/a/cyberpinkfm * Business Inquiries Email: cyberpinkfm@gmail.com * Business Inquiries WeChat: CyberPink2022 Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 2026年1月3日凌晨，美军特种部队突入委内瑞拉，几小时内将总统马杜罗从地堡中抓获并押送至纽约受审。这场堪比美剧的行动震惊世界，也标志着特朗普口中"唐罗主义"的正式登场。 本期节目，我们紧急复盘这场在2026年一开始就震惊世界的行动：从"太阳集团"的定性到石油利益的盘算，从卢比奥的鹰派野心到万斯的微妙缺席。美国"管杀"？会不会"管埋"？反对派领袖玛丽亚·马查多为何被泼冷水？委内瑞拉副总统接班背后有没有交易？我们尝试在新闻尚未尘埃落定时，给出一个初步的解读框架。 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年1月4日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 02:15 抓捕马杜罗军事行动细节 09:22 美剧与真实行动的对照 12:43 美国的官方理由：毒品、移民、石油 14:09 特朗普政府内部的派系 16:17 卢比奥的南美野心与意识形态 17:34 万斯去哪了？副总统的微妙缺席 19:26 "太阳集团"：从互联网黑话到官方定性 22:14 石油真的值得吗？委内瑞拉重油的复杂经济账 28:46 国际体系走向丛林法则 30:11 民主党的尴尬处境 32:23 从门罗主义到唐罗主义 41:44 谁来接班？副总统留任与反对派出局 44:58 管杀不管埋？ 50:14 这件事对中期选举有影响吗 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 胖花花：《研究研究》主播 【 What We Talked About】 In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces stormed into Venezuela and captured President Maduro from his bunker within hours, transporting him to New York to stand trial. This operation, straight out of a TV thriller, shocked the world and marked the official debut of what Trump calls "Donroe Doctrine." In this episode, we urgently debrief this operation that stunned the world at the very start of 2026: from the designation of the "Cartel of the Suns" to the calculations over oil interests, from Rubio's hawkish ambitions to Vance's conspicuous absence. Will the U.S. follow through after "pulling the trigger"? Why was opposition leader María Corina Machado given the cold shoulder? Is there a backroom deal behind the Venezuelan vice president's succession? We attempt to offer a preliminary analytical framework while the dust is still settling. This episode was recorded on the evening of January 4, 2026, U.S. time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 02:15 Military operation details: The capture of Maduro 09:22 TV drama vs. reality: How fiction predicted the operation 12:43 Official U.S. justifications: Drugs, immigration, and oil 14:09 Factions within the Trump administration 16:17 Rubio's South America ambitions and ideology 17:34 Where was Vance? 19:26 "Cartel of the Suns" 22:14 Is the oil worth it? 28:46 The international order descends into the law of the jungle 30:11 The Democrats' awkward position 32:23 From Monroe Doctrine to Donroe Doctrine 41:44 Who takes over? Vice president stays, opposition sidelined 44:58 Will the U.S. follow through after pulling the trigger? 50:14 Will this affect the midterm elections? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 一座占地仅三分之一街区的小花园，为何能让纽约的政客们冲突、登上纽约时报、还惊动马丁·斯科塞斯和罗伯特·德尼罗等名流亲自站台？ 2025年11月，刚刚当选纽约市长的马姆达尼还没上任，即将离任的Eric Adams就抢先签署行政令，将伊丽莎白街花园永久划为公园用地——这被外界解读为一枚"政治毒丸"。这座花园的命运，折射出纽约乃至美国城市治理中的一个核心的矛盾：我们到底应该建更多房子，还是保护现有社区？谁有权决定一个街区的未来？ 本期节目，我们邀请到纽约城市规划师罗雨翔老师，从一座社区花园的十年争议出发，聊聊纽约政治中那些看不见的博弈。罗雨翔此前也做过两期纽约相关的节目《纽约的房价到底为什么这么高》和《纽约地铁为什么这么破》，两期播客都发布在我们的友台《选修课》上，也欢迎大家前去收听，并关注这档播客。如果你对这期节目内容感兴趣，欢迎购买罗雨翔的新书《创造大都会——纽约空间与制度观察》，国内各大平台均有销售，海外用户请使用此链接购买。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 03:45 马姆达尼当选与Eric Adams的"政治毒丸" 05:40 伊丽莎白街花园的前世今生 09:40 社区的阶层分化：SOHO富人区vs唐人街低收入社区 12:57 花园之争背后的市议会选战 16:01 公园异化法：为什么正式公园用地几乎无法改变 21:17 Adams给马姆达尼的台阶？ 23:41 社区规划与NIMBY现象 30:24 政府的复杂角色：豪华公寓与保障房的平衡术 35:04 Eric Adams的另一面：区划法改革与垃圾革命 42:31 纽约的小政府传统 51:14 Robert Moses vs Jane Jacobs 54:25 为Robert Moses翻案？丰裕议程与当代回响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人 罗雨翔：美国注册城市规划师，哈佛大学与伦敦政治经济学院建筑与经济双硕士。现居纽约，参与以及主持北美20余地区的地产开发、区域经济政策与公共领域投资项目。 【 What We Talked About】 How can a tiny garden—barely a third of a city block—spark political battles in New York, make headlines in the New York Times, and rally celebrities like Martin Scorsese and Robert De Niro to its defense? In November 2025, just days after Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral race but before he could take office, outgoing Mayor Eric Adams signed an executive order permanently designating Elizabeth Street Garden as parkland—a move widely seen as a "political poison pill." The fate of this garden reflects a core tension in urban governance, not just in New York but across America: Should we build more housing, or protect existing communities? And who gets to decide the future of a neighborhood? In this episode, we're joined by Yuxiang Luo, an urban planner based in New York, to explore ten years of controversy surrounding a single community garden—and the invisible power struggles that shape New York City politics. Yuxiang has previously appeared on two episodes about New York: "Why Is Housing in New York So Expensive?" and "Why Is the New York Subway So Run-Down?", both available on our sister podcast Mo Electives (选修课). We encourage you to check them out and follow that show. If you're interested in this episode's topics, consider picking up Yuxiang's new book, Creating the Metropolis: Observations on Space and Institutions in New York, available on major platforms in China. Overseas readers can purchase it here. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 03:45 Mamdani's Election and Eric Adams' "Political Poison Pill" 05:40 The History of Elizabeth Street Garden 09:40 Class Divide: Wealthy SoHo vs. Low-Income Chinatown 12:57 The City Council Race Behind the Garden Battle 16:01 Parkland Alienation Law: Why Official Parkland Is Nearly Untouchable 21:17 An Off-Ramp for Mamdani? 23:41 Community Planning and NIMBYism 30:24 The Government's Balancing Act: Luxury Condos vs. Affordable Housing 35:04 The Other Side of Eric Adams: Zoning Reform and the Trash Revolution 42:31 New York's Small-Government Tradition 51:14 Robert Moses vs. Jane Jacobs 54:25 Rehabilitating Robert Moses? The Abundance Agenda and Its Echoes Today 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Luo Yuxiang: U.S. Registered Urban Planner, holding dual master's degrees in Architecture and Economics from Harvard University and the London School of Economics. Currently residing in New York, he has participated in and led over 20 real estate development, regional economic policy, and public domain investment projects across North America. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 关注Netflix历史的人都知道，这是一个几乎不参与大型收购的科技公司，而它却突然出手，提出高价收购华纳兄弟探索集团（WBD）这样一家体积庞大、历史悠久的传奇制片厂，究竟是要拯救它，还是毁了它？ 本期节目为《硅谷101》与《美轮美换》《去现场》串台节目，小华和《美轮美换》的老朋友、《去现场》的主播杨一，和《硅谷101》的两位主播Yiwen和Jinpeng一起，共同分析这场戏剧性的收购。我们录制的时间是12月7日，也就是派拉蒙提出敌意收购前一天。所以我们大部分的讨论，都是以Netflix为核心的，包括这家刻满了硅谷基因的公司为什么决定涉足传统媒体，以及它为什么胜过了其他竞争对手。不过，我们的嘉宾也在录制过程中提到了，派拉蒙很有可能会提出敌意收购，而目前WBD依然向自己的股东推荐接受Netflix的报价。 欢迎关注《硅谷101》与《去现场》。 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期节目主播和嘉宾： 【主播】 Yiwen：硅谷101特约研究员 Jinpeng：硅谷101特约研究员 【嘉宾】 小华，媒体人，《美轮美换》主播 杨一，旅英媒体人，播客《去现场》主播 【监制】 泓君 【后期】 AMEI 【运营】 朱婕 【在这里找到硅谷101】 公众号：硅谷101 收听渠道：Apple Podcast｜Spotify｜小宇宙｜喜马拉雅｜蜻蜓FM｜荔枝FM｜网易云音乐｜QQ音乐 其他平台：YouTube｜Bilibili 搜索「硅谷101播客」 联系我们：podcast@sv101.net 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 03:37 Netflix有选择的收购，出于哪些考虑？ 04:51 电视新闻网，烫手山芋 07:39 猝不及防的官宣，好莱坞也在意料之外 10:29 广告、密码与进军体育：不是第一次做颠覆性变革的Netflix 13:55 特朗普插手？收购面临的监管挑战 16:02 好莱坞与消费者的实际担忧 17:50 院线电影的未来 22:12 Netflix会颠覆自己的流媒体为主的商业模式吗？ 24:34 吸纳大量华纳IP后，Netflix下一步棋如何走？ 25:08 HBO Max何去何从？ 30:23 疲于竞争，流媒体平台的瓶颈期 34:07 从《鱿鱼游戏》到《K-Pop猎魔女团》，继续外探国际市场 35:34 Netflix如何赢下收购战的？ 36:18 恼羞成怒，David Ellison的下一步 39:19 华纳兄弟的CEO，笑到最后的赢家 42:45 不断转型，华纳过去动荡的几年 44:50 权力关系另一边，迪士尼会焦虑吗？ 49:52 华纳的主题乐园，Netflix如何处置 【 What We Talked About】 Anyone who follows the history of Netflix knows it is a tech giant that almost never participates in large-scale acquisitions. So, why has it suddenly stepped up with a premium bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)—a massive, historic, and legendary studio? Is Netflix stepping in to save this legacy institution, or will this deal lead to its downfall? This episode is a special crossover between “硅谷101” (Silicon Valley 101), “美轮美换,” and “去现场.” Join host Xiaohua, Yang Yi from “去现场,” and Yiwen and Jinpeng from “硅谷101” as they break down this dramatic takeover. Note: We recorded this on December 7th, one day before Paramount launched its hostile takeover bid. Therefore, our discussion focuses primarily on Netflix—why a company with Silicon Valley DNA decided to venture into traditional media and how it outpaced its competitors. Even though a Paramount bid was anticipated during our recording, WBD continues to recommend the Netflix offer to its shareholders. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 03:37 Selective Acquisitions: What are Netflix’s strategic considerations? 04:51 TV News Networks: A "hot potato" in the deal? 07:39 A sudden announcement that caught Hollywood off guard. 10:29 Ads, password sharing, and the move into sports: Netflix is no stranger to disruptive change. 13:55 Will Trump intervene? The regulatory challenges facing the acquisition. 16:02 Practical concerns from Hollywood and consumers alike. 17:50 The future of theatrical releases and cinema. 22:12 Will Netflix disrupt its own streaming-first business model? 24:34 After absorbing Warner’s massive IP library, what is Netflix’s next move? 25:08 What lies ahead for HBO Max? 30:23 Competition fatigue: Streaming platforms hit a bottleneck. 34:07 From Squid Game to K-Pop: Demon Hunters: Continuing the push into international markets. 35:34 How did Netflix win the acquisition war? 36:18 From frustration to retaliation: David Ellison’s next move. 39:19 The CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery: The winner who laughed last. 42:45 A history of constant transition: Warner’s turbulent recent years. 44:50 On the other side of the power struggle: Is Disney feeling the pressure? 49:52 Warner’s Theme Parks: How will Netflix manage them? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Hosts and Guests of this episode: 【Hosts】 Yiwen: Researcher, Silicon Valley 101 Jinpeng: Researcher, Silicon Valley 101 【Guests】 Xiao Hua: Media Professional; Host of 美轮美换 Yang Yi: UK-based Media Professional; Host of 去现场 【Production Team】 Executive Producer: Hongjun Post-Production: AMEI Operations: Zhujie Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 特朗普总统的第二任期已经过去了一年，在这一年之中，美国政治是一如既往的精彩。特别是特朗普本人，不管是在内政还是外交上，都以一种不可置疑的方式，不停地发出各种指令，改变着美国。更重要的是这一系列的操作似乎并没有受到太大的阻力。如今他看起来并不是民选国家的领导人，更像是一个专制独裁国家的君主，不受到任何的约束。 为什么会出现这样的情况？这是只会发生在特朗普身上的个例，还是背后有着更深层次的原因。为什么美国总统们的权力会越来越大，民主党和共和党对于总统制的理解有何不同。为什么对于特朗普的反制措施都没有取得效果。本期节目，我们从小阿瑟•M.施莱辛格《帝王总统》出发，来试图给这一系列的问题作出解答。 本期节目为talich在《以读攻读》的串台，欢迎在各平台关注《以读攻读》。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 04:39 今天有多少美国人觉得特朗普的权力过大了 05:59 美国国父们设计总统制的初衷 09:37 总统制与当时其他国家领袖制度的对比 13:14 美国制宪会议上如何划分总统的权力 19:03 美国总统为什么想要扩张自己的权力 22:20 为什么外交领域成为了总统扩权的突破口 26:54 20世纪，美国成为行政国家的过程 33:18 行政国家的形成为什么给了总统更大的权力 37:32 总统竞选模式的改变导致了总统候选人有了更大的话语权 42:08 罗斯福和尼克松是如何扩张总统的权力 54:15 总统如何通过任命政务官加强自己权力 58:12 美国各界对于总统扩权的态度 1:01:05 Loper 案推翻 Chevron Deference 1:02:00 政治科学家对于总统权力的看法 1:11:45 70年代开始，共和党开始推行的“单一行政权理论” 1:16:33 法律上的原教旨主义如何支持“单一行政权理论” 1:30:19 美国政治中的总统周期理论 1:36:36 特朗普政府如何通过实践扩大自己的权力（针对法院的策略等） 1:40:05 “帝王总统制”的未来走向 1:51:01 选民认知对未来美国政治走势的影响 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 《以读攻读》主播： 黄哲成：《现代主义文学百年》《深焦 DeepFocus Radio》《以读攻读》主播 【 What We Talked About】 It has been one year since the start of President Trump's second term, and American politics has been as dramatic as ever. Trump himself, in particular, has been reshaping the United States—both domestically and internationally—by issuing directives with an air of absolute authority. More importantly, these actions seem to have met with little significant resistance. Today, he appears less like the leader of a democracy and more like the monarch of an autocratic regime, operating without restraint. Why is this happening? Is this a phenomenon unique to Trump, or are there deeper underlying causes? Why has the power of the U.S. presidency continued to expand? How do Democrats and Republicans differ in their understanding of the presidential system? And why have all attempts to check Trump's power failed to result in any change? In this episode, taking Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.'s The Imperial Presidency as our starting point, we attempt to answer these questions. Note: This is a crossover episode featuring talich on Yi Du Gong Du. Please follow "Yi Du Gong Du" on your favorite podcast platforms. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 04:39 How many Americans today believe Trump has too much power? 05:59 The Founding Fathers' original intent in designing the presidency. 09:37 Comparing the presidency to other leadership systems of that era. 13:14 How presidential powers were defined at the Constitutional Convention. 19:03 Why U.S. presidents seek to expand their power. 22:20 Why foreign policy became the gateway for expanding presidential authority. 26:54 The 20th Century: The process of America becoming an "Administrative State." 33:18 Why the rise of the Administrative State empowered the presidency. 37:32 How changes in campaigning increased the influence of presidential candidates. 42:08 How Roosevelt and Nixon expanded presidential power. 54:15 Strengthening power through political appointments. 58:12 Reactions across various sectors to the expansion of executive power. 1:01:05 Loper Bright and the overturning of Chevron deference. 1:02:00 Political scientists' views on presidential power. 1:11:45 The "Unitary Executive Theory" pushed by the Republican Party since the 1970s. 1:16:33 How legal Originalism supports the "Unitary Executive Theory." 1:30:19 The theory of presidential cycles in American politics. 1:36:36 How the Trump administration expanded power through practice (strategies against the courts, etc.). 1:40:05 The future trajectory of the "Imperial Presidency." 1:51:01 The impact of voter perception on the future of U.S. politics. 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history Host of Yi Du Gong Du: Huang Zhecheng: An interesting but useless person, doing interesting but useless things. (Douban: @hzcneo) Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 破纪录的政府关门终于收场，但两党关于奥巴马医保补贴的争议依然存在悬念。与此同时，爱泼斯坦档案风波引发MAGA运动的“路线之争”，特朗普罕见地失去对基本盘的完全控制。这是否是特朗普“跛脚鸭”任期的开始？ 本期节目录制于美国当地时间11月17日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:03 回顾政府关门：为何民主党最终妥协 06:42 民主党内部分裂 13:08 关门斗争对共和党选民的冲击 18:37 奥巴马医保补贴的未来 24:46 民主党领导层Jeffries与Schumer的不同处境 32:42 爱泼斯坦档案如何让特朗普政府失控 43:27 MTG与特朗普的决裂：MAGA内部的路线斗争 59:23 特朗普“跛脚鸭”任期的开始？ 1:06:02 MAGA运动的未来与特朗普的政治遗产 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 【 What We Talked About】 The record-breaking government shutdown has finally come to a close, yet the bipartisan standoff over Obamacare subsidies remains in limbo. Meanwhile, the fallout from the Epstein files has ignited an internal rift within the MAGA movement, leading to a rare moment where Trump has lost full control over his base. Does this mark the beginning of Trump's "lame duck" presidency? This episode was recorded on the evening of November 17, U.S. time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:03 Recapping the Shutdown: Why the Democrats Finally Compromised 06:42 Internal Divisions Within the Democratic Party 13:08 The Shutdown's Impact on Republican Voters 18:37 The Future of Obamacare Subsidies 24:46 Democratic Leadership: The Divergent Paths of Jeffries and Schumer 32:42 How the Epstein Files Caused the Trump Administration to Lose Control 43:27 MTG Breaks with Trump: The Battle for the Direction of MAGA 59:23 The Beginning of Trump's "Lame Duck" Presidency? 1:06:02 The Future of the MAGA Movement and Trump’s Political Legacy 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 2025年11月4日，在美国多个州举行的地方选举中，民主党取得了压倒性胜利。从弗吉尼亚到新泽西的州长选举，再到纽约市长的争夺，民主党候选人几乎在所有关键战场都大获全胜。 这股蓝色浪潮的回归，究竟是选民对特朗普政府执政表现的公投，还是对高昂生活成本焦虑的集中爆发？本期节目，我们深入剖析这场“期期中选举”的结果，探讨其对政府关门、2026年中期选举乃至美国未来政治格局的影响。 本期节目录制于美国时间11月5日晚间。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-election-zohran-mamdani-nyc-virgina-jersey-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:42 2025年选举结果：民主党取得意外大胜 04:12 弗吉尼亚州选举复盘：斯潘伯格大胜，民主党全面巩固优势 11:56 斯潘伯格是怎样的候选人？ 15:46 新泽西州选举复盘：为何谢丽尔的胜利可能比斯潘伯格更惊艳？ 22:17 新泽西州的少数族裔选票流变：民主党收复拉丁裔与亚裔选民 25:04 纽约市长选举：民主社会主义者当选，「库默王朝」终结 34:27 世代差异与竞选创新：马姆达尼如何通过社群动员年轻人？ 39:12 选举后的叙事之争：温和派与左派，谁是真正赢家？ 43:39 民主党横扫全美 47:29 民主党重回「大帐篷」模式？一体多面的政党未来 53:32 加州50号公投通过：纽森的政治豪赌与全国选区重划战局 1:03:18 展望2026中期选举 1:06:55 政府关门危机进入深水区 1:10:05 最高法院审理特朗普关税权力案，保守派大法官态度微妙 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 On November 4, 2025, in local elections held across multiple U.S. states, the Democratic Party achieved a sweeping victory. From the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey to the race for Mayor of New York City, Democratic candidates were victorious in almost all key battlegrounds. Is this return of the "blue wave" a referendum on the performance of the Trump administration, or an eruption of anxiety over the high cost of living? In this episode, we deeply analyze the results of this "off-off-year" election, exploring its impact on a potential government shutdown, the 2026 midterm elections, and the future of the American political landscape. This episode was recorded on the evening of November 5th, US time. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-election-zohran-mamdani-nyc-virgina-jersey-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:42 2025 Election Results: Democrats Score a Surprise Landslide 04:12 Virginia Election Recap: Spanberger's Big Win, Democrats Consolidate Their Advantage 11:56 Who is Spanberger? 15:46 New Jersey Election Recap: Why Sherrill's Victory Might Be Even More Striking Than Spanberger's 22:17 Minority Vote Shifts in New Jersey: Democrats Win Back Latino and Asian Voters 25:04 New York City Mayoral Election: Democratic Socialist Elected, "Cuomo Dynasty" Ends 34:27 Generational Divides and Campaign Innovation: How Mamdani Mobilized Young People Through Community Organizing 39:12 The Post-Election Narrative Battle: Moderates vs. Progressives, Who Was the Real Winner? 43:39 Democrats Sweep Across the Nation 47:29 Are Democrats Returning to a "Big Tent" Model? The Multifaceted Future of the Party 53:32 California's Proposition 50 Passes: Newsom's Political Gamble and the National Redistricting Battle 1:03:18 Looking Ahead to the 2026 Midterms 1:06:55 Government Shutdown Crisis Enters Deep Waters 1:10:05 Supreme Court Hears Case on Trump's Tariff Powers, Conservative Justices' Stances Are Subtle 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 【拓展链接 The Links】 A Little-Noted Element Propelled Mamdani’s Rise: Gen Z Loneliness https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/nyregion/mamdani-young-voters.html Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 美国经济究竟是好是坏？一边是各大公司纷纷裁员，物价持续上涨，民众叫苦连天；另一边却是股市高歌猛进，AI叙事如火如荼。本期节目我们和《起朱楼宴宾客》主播大卫翁，在狂喜播客节远程连线，探讨美国经济体感与宏观数据之间的巨大鸿沟。尽管经济前景充满不确定性，美国股市却在AI叙事的驱动下持续上涨，将科技巨头、普通投资人都绑上了一艘“大船”。这艘船能航行多久？ 本期节目录制于美国时间11月1日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 03:35 美国政府还要持续多久 11:57 - 美国经济真的差吗？各行业体感差异巨大 28:56 矛盾的宏观数据：经济增长与就业疲软并存 37:44 特朗普对美联储和经济数据统计机构的挑战 44:15 美联储的独立性从何而来？ 57:01 经济下行，为何美股持续上涨？除了AI还有什么原因？ 1:08:17 听众问答 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 Is the American economy doing well or poorly? On one hand, major companies are laying off employees left and right, prices continue to rise, and people are complaining bitterly. On the other hand, the stock market keeps surging ahead, and the AI narrative is in full swing. In this episode, we connect remotely with David Weng, host of 《起朱楼宴宾客》, at the 狂喜 Podcast Festival to explore the enormous gap between how the American economy feels on the ground and what macroeconomic data shows. Despite widespread economic uncertainty, the US stock market continues to climb driven by the AI narrative, tying tech giants and ordinary investors alike to the same "ship." How long can this ship keep sailing? This episode was recorded on the evening of November 1st, US time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 03:35 How long will the American government last? 11:57 Is the American economy really struggling? Vastly different experiences across industries 28:56 Contradictory macroeconomic data: Economic growth coexisting with weak employment 37:44 Trump's challenges to the Federal Reserve and economic statistics agencies 44:15 Where does the Federal Reserve's independence come from? 57:01 Why does the US stock market keep rising amid economic decline? What other factors besides AI? 1:08:17 Listener Q&A 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 “鸡毛秀”停播风波不仅是一场关于言论自由的攻防战，更是美国传统媒体结构性危机的集中爆发。本期节目从这起风波说起，回溯美国广播电视网与地方台独特的共生关系，以及监管机构FCC在其中扮演的角色。 当旧的秩序摇摇欲坠，新的变革也已登堂入室。我们同时将目光投向另一家传统媒体巨头CBS，探讨Bari Weiss的“空降”将给传统新闻编辑室带来怎样的颠覆性实验。一边是在旧体系内艰难挣扎的深夜秀，一边是试图从内部进行激进重塑的百年新闻部。当百年形成的媒体结构遭遇政治极化与新技术的双重冲击，传统电视的未来将走向何方？ 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/jimmy-kimmel-abc-disney-cbs-news-bari-weiss-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:40 Jimmy Kimmel因评论Charlie Kirk被ABC停播事件始末 05:05 FCC直接施压的阴影 09:10 深夜秀的历史 15:55 “末代主播”？深夜秀的商业模式危机 25:36 地方电视台巨头Sinclair和Nextstar在此次事件中的关键角色 26:19 全国广播网 (Network) 与地方加盟台 (Affiliate) 的博弈 32:43 地方媒体集团的崛起与政治倾向化（以Sinclair为例） 38:38 FCC（联邦通信委员会）的权力杠杆 49:06 FCC的内容审查边界：从“公共利益”原则的演变看政府监管的合法性 62:47 FCC主席的威胁是否违反第一修正案？ 66:59 对比特朗普与拜登政府的“Jawboning” 72:15 CEO的误判？迪士尼Bob Iger的“缓兵之计”为何失败 82:02 为何大公司在特朗普2.0时代集体“变软”？集体行动的困境 85:50 David Ellison入主派拉蒙与Bari Weiss执掌CBS新闻 90:12 Bari Weiss的挑战：新媒体“网红”能否管理好百年新闻机构？ 106:24 福克斯的“减法”策略与继承人问题的解决 109:35 传统媒体的核心价值还剩下什么？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 小华：媒体人 杨一：旅英媒体人 品达：美国政治观察人士 【 What We Talked About】 The suspension of Jimmy Kimmel Live was more than a free speech debate—it was a flare-up of the deep, structural crisis in American media. This episode unpacks that crisis, from the complex relationship between networks and local affiliates to the power of the FCC. While the old system crumbles, a radical new experiment is underway at CBS. We examine what happens when an outsider like Bari Weiss is put in charge of a traditional newsroom—a story of external pressure versus a high-stakes internal overhaul. Facing political division and technological disruption, what is the future of traditional TV? Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/jimmy-kimmel-abc-disney-cbs-news-bari-weiss-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:40 The Jimmy Kimmel Suspension: A Breakdown of the Controversy Over His Charlie Kirk Comments 05:05 The Shadow of Direct FCC Pressure 09:10 The History of Late Night 15:55 "The Final Generation"? The Business Model Crisis Facing Late Night 25:36 The Key Role of Local TV Giants Sinclair and Nextstar 26:19 The Power Struggle Between National Networks and Local Affiliates 32:43 The Rise and Politicization of Local Media Groups (The Case of Sinclair) 38:38 The FCC's Regulatory Leverage 49:06 The Limits of FCC Content Regulation: Legitimacy and the Evolving "Public Interest" Doctrine 62:47 Did the FCC Chairman's Threats Violate the First Amendment? 66:59 Comparing Government "Jawboning": Trump vs. Biden 72:15 A CEO's Miscalculation? Why Disney's Bob Iger's Delaying Tactic Backfired 82:02 Why Big Business is Bending the Knee to Trump 2.0: The Dilemma of Collective Action 85:50 New Leadership: David Ellison at Paramount & Bari Weiss at CBS News 90:12 The Bari Weiss Challenge: Can a New Media Influencer Run a Legacy News Institution? 106:24 Fox's Streamlining Strategy and the Murdoch Succession Solution 109:35 What Core Value Remains for Traditional Media? 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Yang Yi: Journalist based in London Pinda：American political enthusiast Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 美国联邦政府时隔七年再度关门，这不仅是预算之争，更是两党围绕奥巴马医改补贴和行政权力的政治赌博。民主党看似手握医保这一民生王牌，民调也明显占有，为何攻势疲软？特朗普政府在《2025计划》的操盘手Russell Vought的推动下试图借机进一步削弱联邦政府，是否能成功？这场闹剧会像以往一样无疾而终？ 本期节目录制于2025年10月4日。 播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-government-shutdown-transcript 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:00 时隔7年，美国联邦政府再次停摆 02:18 什么是政府关门？“必要”和“非必要”服务如何划分？ 05:26 从克林顿、奥巴马到特朗普时期的政府关门 09:13 提出政治要求的一方通常会失败 12:16 本次关门核心争议 13:28 两党各自的政治算盘：为何双方都觉得关门对自己有利？ 17:21 - 关门对联邦雇员和公共服务的影响 19:00 预算管理局（OMB）主任Russell Vought想借机削减联邦政府 21:52 奥巴马医改“补贴悬崖”与拜登时期加强版补贴到期问题 30:23 民主党的议题选择：从弱势的移民问题转向强势的医保问题 39:39 民主党攻势为何“雷声大雨点小”？党内分歧与领导层顾虑 42:03 共和党的反击策略：将医保问题与非法移民捆绑 53:20 关门对弗吉尼亚和新泽西州长选举的潜在影响 58:04 为何共和党不愿为预算案废除“冗长辩论”？ 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 The U.S. federal government has shut down again after seven years—this is not merely a budget dispute, but a political gamble between the two parties over Affordable Care Act subsidies and executive power. The Democrats seemingly hold the trump card of healthcare, a vital public concern, and polls are clearly in their favor, so why is their offensive so weak? The Trump administration, driven by Russell Vought, the mastermind behind Project 2025, is attempting to use this opportunity to further weaken the federal government—will they succeed? Will this spectacle fizzle out like previous shutdowns? This episode was recorded on October 4, 2025. Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/2025-government-shutdown-transcript 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:00 After 7 years, the U.S. federal government shuts down again 02:18 What is a government shutdown? How are "essential" and "non-essential" services defined? 05:26 Government shutdowns from the Clinton, Obama, and Trump eras 09:13 The side making political demands typically loses 12:16 Core disputes in this shutdown 13:28 Each party's political calculus: Why do both sides think the shutdown benefits them? 17:21 Impact of the shutdown on federal employees and public services 19:00 OMB Director Russell Vought seeks to use this opportunity to downsize the federal government 21:52 The Affordable Care Act "subsidy cliff" and the expiration of enhanced Biden-era subsidies 30:23 Democrats' issue selection: Shifting from the weak immigration issue to the strong healthcare issue 39:39 Why is the Democrats' offensive "all bark and no bite"? Internal divisions and leadership concerns 42:03 Republican counterattack strategy: Tying healthcare to illegal immigration 53:20 Potential impact of the shutdown on Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections 58:04 Why Republicans are unwilling to eliminate the filibuster for the budget bill 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】 本期节目，我们与播客疲惫娇娃的主播们，聊了Ari Aster的最新电影《爱丁顿》(Eddington)——一部让人看完想骂街，但又忍不住要深度分析的作品。这位以《仲夏夜惊魂》和《遗传厄运》闻名的导演，这次把镜头对准了2020年5月疫情初期的美国小镇，用西部片的外壳包装了一个关于社交媒体如何撕裂社群的恐怖故事。Joaquin Phoenix饰演的老派警长Joe Cross和Pedro Pascal饰演的自由派市长在这个巴掌大的新墨西哥小镇展开政治对决，而真正的赢家却是那个从头到尾都面目模糊的科技巨头——他们要在这里建数据中心。我们从这部极具争议性的电影聊开去，探讨了BLM运动的社交媒体化、取消文化的游戏规则、以及阴谋论如何在小镇邻里间传播。最终发现，当所有人都在网上吵成一团的时候，真正的危机——AI和大科技公司——已经悄悄占领了现实世界。 本期节目录制于2025年9月7日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:12 - Vibe Shift：从Covid到现在的时代精神转向 03:44 - Ari Aster这一次拍了个什么片？ 07:57 - 小镇警长和自由派精英的对决导演拉偏架了吗？ 16:57 - BLM运动的社交媒体化和"good trouble"的商品化 23:34 - 社交媒体游戏规则如何让所有人"吃相难看" 35:36 - 创伤如何成为舆论场的货币 40:07 - 小蓝的"假新闻田野调查" 46:31 - 电影结局的虚无主义倾向 49:31 - "SolidGoldMagikarp"彩蛋 53:30 - AI数据中心对美国小镇的真实影响 59:24 - 艺术家有权创作"残忍"艺术吗？ 1:11:12 - 爱丁顿里的真实社会议题 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人 小杨：疲惫娇娃主播 一芳：疲惫娇娃主播 小蓝：新新人类主播 主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【 What We Talked About】 This episode we dove into Ari Aster's latest film "Eddington"—a movie that'll make you want to throw things at the screen, but also can't stop you from obsessively analyzing every frame. The director behind "Midsommar" and "Hereditary" sets his sights on a fictional small American town during the early pandemic chaos of May 2020, wrapping a horror story about social media tearing communities apart in Western film genre. Joaquin Phoenix's old-school sheriff Joe Cross goes head-to-head with Pedro Pascal's liberal mayor in this tiny New Mexico town, while the real winner turns out to be the faceless tech giant that's been planning to build a data center there all along. We used this deeply polarizing film to unpack everything from how BLM got weaponized on social media, to the toxic rules of cancel culture, to how conspiracy theories spread like wildfire through small-town neighbor networks. The ending is both alarming and defeatist: while everyone was busy fighting online, the real crisis—AI and Big Tech—had already quietly taken over. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:12 - Vibe Shift: Zeitgeist transformation from pandemic to now 03:44 - Film plot overview: Political showdown in a New Mexico town 07:57 - Did Ari Aster put his thumb on the scale in the fight between the sheriff and the mayor 16:57 - The social media-ization of BLM and commodification of "good trouble" 23:34 - How social media rules make everyone look bad 35:36 - How trauma becomes currency in the discourse 40:07 - Xiao Lan's "fake news field research" 46:31 - The film's nihilistic ending 49:31 - "SolidGoldMagikarp" Easter egg 52:18 - Real impact of AI data centers on American small towns 59:24 - Do artists have the right to create "cruel" art? 1:11:12 - Real social issues plaiguing today's America in "Eddington" 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer 小杨 (Xiao Yang): Host of 疲惫娇娃 CyberPink 一芳 (Yi Fang): Host of 疲惫娇娃 CyberPink 小蓝 (Xiao Lan): Host of 新新人类 PixelPerfect The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助