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0How half a degree could change the world forever | BBC Ideas
If the temperature outside changes by half a degree, you won't even feel it. Such a small change is almost imperceptible to human senses. But half a degree of global temperature change could be little short of the end of the world we recognise. Or at least the world humanity has inhabited for the last few millennia. In 2015, governments agreed a deal in Paris to stop global warming rising past 2 degrees and to try to keep it below 1.5 degrees.
如果外面的温度变化了半度，你甚至感觉不到。如此微小的变化，人类的感官几乎是察觉不到的。但是，半度的全球温度变化可能与我们认识到的世界末日相差无几。或者至少是人类在过去几千年中居住的世界。2015年，各国政府在巴黎达成了一项协议，以阻止全球变暖超过2度，并试图将其保持在1.5度以下。
So what's in half a degree? At 1.5 degrees, there would still be some precious rainforests, polar bears and coral reefs on planet Earth, albeit seriously diminished. Sea levels would rise, but relatively slowly, so major cities like London, Jakarta and Mumbai have a better chance of continuing life as normal. Drought and flooding would be at a level where food production can keep up with population growth. Millions of extra climate refugees could stay at home and others could avoid starvation.
半度代表什么?在1.5摄氏度的情况下，地球上仍然会有一些珍贵的雨林、北极熊和珊瑚礁，尽管会严重减少。海平面将上升，但相对缓慢，因此像伦敦、雅加达和孟买这样的大城市更有可能继续正常生活。干旱和洪涝将达到粮食生产能够跟上人口增长的水平。数以百万计的额外气候难民可以留在家中，其他人可以避免饥饿。
Getting to this world isn't impossible, it means cutting greenhouse gas emissions by half within a decade and then being carbon neutral by mid-century. So we'd be closing coal power stations instead of building new ones and every car would be electric. We'd be restoring forests instead of cutting them down, and even aircraft would be carbon neutral. It's not impossible, but it is unlikely.
实现这个目标并非不可能，这意味着在十年内将温室气体排放量减少一半，然后在本世纪中叶实现碳中和。因此，我们将关闭燃煤发电站，而不是建造新的发电站，每辆汽车都得是电动的。我们将恢复森林而不是砍伐它们，甚至飞机也将是碳中和的。这不是不可能，但可能性不大。
The fossil fuels lobby is powerful. Some heads of state even deny the reality of climate change. Transforming the global energy system will take time, and trillions of dollars of investment. But it's also an opportunity. So if we're too slow and instead of 1.5, we get the extra half degree - what then? According to the latest IPCC report, in a world two degrees warmer, you'd go diving in the tropical seas but the flourishing coral reefs are gone. Instead, you would likely see a graveyard of rubble and algae. Back on land, heatwaves are becoming increasingly deadly, with approximately 65 million extra people exposed to exceptional heatwaves each year.
化石燃料游说团体势力强大。一些国家元首甚至否认气候变化的现实。改造全球能源系统需要时间和数万亿美元的投资。但这也是一个机会。所以，如果我们太慢了，我们会得到超过1.5度以外的半度——那怎么办？根据IPCC的最新报告，在一个温暖上升2度的世界里，你去热带海域潜水时会发现繁荣的珊瑚礁已经消失了。相反，你可能会看到一片瓦砾和藻类的墓地。回到陆地上，热浪正变得越来越致命，每年约有额外的6500万人将暴露在异常热浪中。
Imagine yourself at the North Pole, but all you see is open water. The polar bears are gone along with the sea ice that used to be their home. You take a boat to the edge of Greenland, but that frozen wasteland is thawing. Huge meltwater rivers thunder into the ocean, where they add to the rising sea levels that are beginning to flood the world's coastlines. Take a trip to Miami, Mumbai or Melbourne and you'll probably need a boat. Faced with the rising seas, 10 million people could be forced to pack up and move. Global harvests would also suffer, and in developing countries especially the number of people experiencing water scarcity doubles. This would be a world of increasing poverty and human misery.
想象你在北极，但你看到的都是开阔的水面。北极熊和曾经是它们家园的海冰一起消失了。你乘船来到格陵兰岛的边缘，但那片冰冻的荒地正在解冻。巨大的融水河流入海洋，加剧了海平面的上升，开始淹没世界海岸线。去迈阿密、孟买或墨尔本旅行，你可能需要一艘船。面对不断上升的海平面，1000万人可能被迫打包行李搬家。全球收成也将受到影响，尤其是在发展中国家，缺水人口数量将增加一倍。这将是一个贫困和人类苦难日益加剧的世界。
All for what? For half a degree. And for a few more years of coal smoke stacks and oil industry profits. The choice is ours, but not for long. Every bit of warming, every year, every choice matters. But like a desert mirage, the 1.5 degree world is receding into the distance with every year we delay. If carbon emissions keep growing for decades to come, then even two degrees looks hopeful. That's a world - a darker world - of flood, fire and conflict that we can barely even imagine. We can still choose that half a degree window between unsettling dream and full-blown nightmare. But it's closing fast.
这一切因为什么？半度，以及再过几年煤烟烟囱和石油工业的利润。选择权在我们手中，但时间不会太长。每一年，每一点变暖，每一个选择都很重要。但就像沙漠中的海市蜃楼一样，随着我们每拖延一年，1.5摄氏度的世界就会逐渐远去。如果碳排放量在未来几十年持续增长，那么即使是2摄氏度看起来很有可能达到。那是一个我们几乎无法想象的充满洪水、火灾和冲突的世界——一个更黑暗的世界。我们仍然可以在令人不安的梦想和全面爆发的噩梦之间选择那半度的窗口。但它正在迅速关闭。
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