20464
44【聊了什么】
一场始料未及的风暴正席卷特朗普的第二任期。曾被MAGA选民寄予厚望、用以清算“深层政府”的“爱泼斯坦客户名单”，却被特朗普自己的司法部宣告“不存在”，瞬间引爆其基本盘的信任危机。这究竟是一次拙劣的政治操作，还是一场旨在掩盖更惊人真相的阴谋？司法部长邦迪会成为第一个被献祭的内阁成员吗？
与此同时，共和党在国会强力通过了标志性的“大而美法案”，将企业减税永久化，却把对医疗补助等福利的削减推迟到了中期选举之后。这一系列操作背后，是传统共和党建制派的胜利，还是特朗普主义的策略性妥协？
作为回应，曾与特朗普短暂结盟的马斯克，因不满法案中的新能源政策和财政赤字问题，高调宣布成立“美国党”。这究竟是撼动美国两党政治的开始，还是又一个亿万富翁的政治幻想？
本期节目录制于2025年7月13日美国东部时间晚间10点左右。
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【时间轴】
00:01:53 特朗普第二任期的首个大危机：“爱泼斯坦文件”风波始末
01:05 司法部长邦迪为何“犯错”？MAGA支持者为何愤怒？
14:25 从爱泼斯坦到外星人：特朗普选民的独特关注点
16:41 进入正题：国会通过“大而美法案”
18:00 立法博弈：为何众议院直接“吞下”了更激进的参议院版本？
26:38 “过两年我们就赢回来了”：美国政治“摆烂心态”的新常态
35:00 法案里的“惊喜”：为何要对职业赌徒的税收下重手？
38:29 “大而美法案”之外的战场：共和党计划在德州重划选区
59:21 法案的真实影响：医疗补助削减与中期选举的“甩锅”大赛
65:00 共和党的“老内核”：为何企业减税被永久化？
73:22 马斯克成立“美国党”：撼动两党制还是政治幻想？
74:41 财政保守，社会中间：为何马斯克的政党找不到选民？
80:00 第三党的“宿命”：为何在美国成立新政党如此困难？
90:45 政治抱负与商业利益：马斯克无法摆脱的政府依赖
92:05 “亿万富翁救世主”心态：马斯克的政治实验能走多远？
【我们是谁】
美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。
我们的主播和嘉宾：
Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者
王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子
小华：媒体人
主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。
【 What We Talked About】
An unforeseen storm is sweeping through Trump's second term. The "Epstein client list," once seen by MAGA voters as the key to a reckoning with the "deep state," has been declared "nonexistent" by Trump's own Department of Justice, instantly sparking a crisis of trust with his base. Is this a clumsy political maneuver, or a conspiracy to hide a more shocking truth? Will Attorney General Bondi be the first cabinet member to be sacrificed?
Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress have powered through the landmark "One Big Beautiful Bill," making corporate tax cuts permanent while delaying cuts to social benefits like Medicaid until after the midterm elections. Is this move a victory for the traditional GOP establishment, or a strategic compromise of Trumpism?
In response, Elon Musk, once briefly allied with Trump, has loudly announced the formation of the "American Party," citing his dissatisfaction with the bill's new energy policies and the ballooning fiscal deficit. Is this the beginning of a shake-up of America's two-party system, or just another billionaire's political fantasy?
This episode was recorded around 10 PM ET on July 13, 2025.
Podcast Transcript (Paid Subscribers Only): theamericanroulette.com
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【Timeline】
00:01:53 Trump's Second-Term Crisis: The "Epstein Files" Fiasco
01:05 Why Did AG Bondi "Blunder"? Why MAGA Supporters Are Furious
14:25 From Epstein to Aliens: The Unique Interests of Trump's Voters
16:41 The Main Story: Congress Passes the "One Big Beautiful Bill"
18:00 Legislative Games: Why the House "Swallowed" the Senate's More Radical Bill
26:38 "We'll Win It Back in Two Years": The New Normal of Political Apathy
35:00 A Surprise in the Bill: Why a Crackdown on Professional Gamblers?
38:29 Beyond the Bill: The GOP's Plan to Redistrict Texas
59:21 The Bill's Real Impact: Medicaid Cuts and the Midterm Blame Game
65:00 The GOP's "Old Guard" DNA: Why Corporate Tax Cuts Were Made Permanent
73:22 Musk Founds the "American Party": A Political Shake-up or Fantasy?
74:41 Fiscally Conservative, Socially Centrist: Why Musk's Party Can't Find Voters
80:00 The Fate of Third Parties: Why It's So Hard to Launch a New Party in the U.S.
90:45 Political Ambitions vs. Business Interests: Musk's Inescapable Reliance on the Government
92:05 The "Billionaire Savior" Complex: How Far Can Musk's Political Experiment Go?
【Who We Are】
The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.
Our Hosts and Guests:
Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history
王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information
小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer
The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.
【The Links】
