BruceBuenodeMesquita_2009[预测伊朗局势的未来]

1.What I'm going to try to do is explain to you quickly, how to predict, and illustrate it with some predictions about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years.
我将很快的向大家解释一下 我们怎样预测未来 并且向大家展示一下 我们对未来几年伊朗局势所做出的一些预测
2.In order to predict effectively, we need to use science.
为了做出准确的预测 我们需要利用科学
3.And the reason that we need to use science is because then we can reproduce what we're doing, it's not just wisdom or guesswork.
而利用科学的原因是 我们可以重复验证所得到的结果 这就不是智者的预言或者瞎猜
4.And if we can predict, then we can engineer the future.
如果我们可以预测未来 我们就可以操纵未来
5.So if you are concerned to influence energy policy, or you are concerned to influence national security policy, or health policy, or education,
换言之，当你想去左右国家能源政策的时候 或者，当你想去影响国防政策 医疗政策或教育政策的时候
6.science, and a particular branch of science is a way to do it, not the way we've been doing it, which is seat of the pants wisdom.
科学，其中一门科学将会为你指明未来 并不是靠我们所使用的方法 凭借经验或直觉去预言
7.Now before I get into how to do it let me give you a little truth in advertising, because I'm not engaged in the business of magic,
现在，在我进入主题之前 我先给大家一些事先声明， 我不是算命的
8.there are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict, and there are some that it can't.
有一些东西我可以预测 有一些我不能
9.It can predict complex negotiations or situations involving coercion, that is in essence everything that has to do with politics, much of what has to do with business,
我可以预测一些大型谈判 牵涉强制力的一些情景 总的来说，那就是所有和政治有关的事情 也包括一部份商业方面的
10.but sorry, if you're looking to speculate in the stock market, I don't predict stock markets -- OK, it's not going up any time really soon.
但如果你想在股市抄底，那实在不好意思 我确实不能预测股票市场，不过，好吧 反正最近是绝对不可能涨上去的
11.But I'm not engaged in doing that.
但那是我不会预测的
12.I'm not engaged in predicting random number generators, I actually get phone calls from people who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win.
我也不会去预测随机生成的数字 有人曾今打电话问我 下期中奖彩票号码是多少
13.I don't have a clue.
那我爱莫能助。
14.I engage in the use of game theory, game theory is a branch of mathematics and that means, sorry, that even in the study of politics,
我所研究的是博弈论的应用，博弈论是数学的一个分支 也就是说，对不起（文科生们），数学已经进入了
15.math has come into the picture.
政治学的研究领域
16.We can no longer pretend that we just speculate about politics, we need to look at this in a rigorous way.
我们现在不能被动的盲目的去推测政治 我们应该采取科学严谨的方法。
17.Now, what is game theory about?
那，到底什么是博弈论?
18.It assumes that people are looking out for what's good for them.
博弈论有一个假设，那就是人人为己
19.That doesn't seem terribly shocking -- although it's controversial for a lot of people -- that we are self-interested.
这并不是一个让人吃惊的假设 尽管有很多人认为人人都是自私自利 是有争议的命题
20.In order to look out for what's best for them or what they think is best for them, people have values -- they identify what they want, and what they don't want.
为了设法得到对自己最好的东西 或者是他们所认定的对自己最好的东西 人们会通过他们不同的价值观，来识别他们所想要的和所憎恨的
21.And they have beliefs about what other people want, and what other people don't want, how much power other people have, how much those people could get in the way of whatever it is that you want.
而且，他们对别人想要什么，不想要什么 别人有多少势力，他们能拿走多少你想要的 保留他们自己的观点
22.And they face limitations, constraints, they may be weak, they may be located in the wrong part of the world, they may be Einstein, stuck away farming
他们会遇到一些条件限制，约束 也许他们十分的不起眼，也许他们在不应在的一些地方 他们可能是爱因斯坦，但是被可能被困在
23.someplace in a rural village in India not being noticed, as was the case for Ramanujan for a long time, a great mathematician but nobody noticed.
印度的某个村落在种田 就像拉马努金一样 一个很少人关注的印度天才数学家
24.Now who is rational?
那，谁是理性的
25.A lot of people are worried about what is rationality about?
很多人都在冥想到底什么是理性的
26.People are rational.
人人都是理性的
27.Mother Theresa, she was rational.
特蕾莎修女，她是理性的
28.Terrorists, they're rational.
恐怖分子，他们也是理性
29.Pretty much everybody is rational.
绝大多数人都是理性的
30.I think there are only two exceptions that I'm aware of -- two-year-olds, they are not rational, they have very fickle preferences,
我只知道两种例外情况 两岁大的孩子，他们不是理性的 他们想要的东西随时都在变
31.they switch what they think all the time, and schizophrenics are probably not rational, but pretty much everybody else is rational.
他们的思维方式也在不停的变化 精神分裂症患者也不是理性的 但除了以上两者以外，其他所有人都是理性的
32.That is, they are just trying to do what they think is in their own best interest.
所谓理性，那就是人们试着去做 他们认为对他们自己最有利的事情
33.Now in order to work out what people are going to do to pursue their interests, we have to think about who has influence in the world.
现在，为了预测人们将要做什么 来获取他们的个人利益 我们研究那些有影响力的人物
34.If you're trying to influence corporations to change their behavior, with regard to producing pollutants, one approach, the common approach,
如果，你想去左右一些企业的行为 例如，减少他们污染物的排放量 有一个方法，一种常见的方法
35.is to exhort them to be better, to explain to them what damage they're doing to the planet.
那就是给他们一些忠告 告诉他们这些污染物正在破坏我们的地球
36.And many of you may have noticed that doesn't have as big an effect, as perhaps you would like it to have, but if you show them that it's in their interest
你会发现这些手段的效果 并没有你所想象中的那么大 但是，如果你告诉他们环保符合他们的利益
37.then they're responsive.