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0The Best Playbook for Investing During a War Is Usually Doing Nothing
There is chaos in the Middle East and global markets have been oscillating wildly. But rather than panic about what the Iran war may be doing to your investments, try to forget about all of it. That, in a nutshell, is the standard long-term investing playbook for times of crisis.
Academic wisdom suggests simply aiming for an average market return over the long haul is a sensible approach - and, probably, the best strategy for most people. So if you already have set up your portfolio appropriately, using cheap, diversified index funds to hold the entire stock and bond markets in a reasonable proportion, there is no reason to make abrupt changes - and plenty of reasons to avoid acting hastily.
The logic here is sound, but I readily admit that it's not foolproof. Economic recessions are bad for nearly everyone, and certainly for the markets, and if the crisis in the Persian Gulf sets off a recession, it could conceivably take a long time for a full recovery.
Ideally, you have already put aside enough money in safe places — like federally insured bank accounts, Treasury bills and high-quality money-market funds — to ride out a storm. Within weeks or months, the markets usually rebound, and people who stay the course end up prospering.
But the world is moving into strange new places and it would be wise to prepare for further departure from past norms. Hold more bonds and cash than usual, if you are worried. Hope for peace and prosperity but prepare for the horrors of war.
生词好句
playbook 英 [ˈpleɪbʊk] 美 [ˈpleɪbʊk] n.（商业、投资语境）应对策略，操作指南；（体育术语）战术手册
Every successful startup needs a playbook for handling its first major crisis.每一家成功的创业公司都需要一套应对首次重大危机的标准策略。
oscillate 英 [ˈɒsɪleɪt] 美 [ˈɑːsɪleɪt] v. 振荡，来回摆动
volatile adj. 波动的
Public opinion on the new policy has been oscillating wildly between support and outrage.公众对新政策的态度在支持和愤怒之间剧烈摆荡。
wildly 英 [ˈwaɪldli] 美 [ˈwaɪldli] adv. 疯狂地摇摆
4.panic 英 [ˈpænɪk] 美 [ˈpænɪk] adj. 恐慌的
panic selling（投资语境）恐慌性抛售
in a nutshell 用最精炼的方式把事情说清楚
hasty adj. 草率的
In a nutshell, his life's work was making sure ordinary families didn't make hasty decisions based on bad information.简而言之，他一生的工作就是确保普通家庭不会根据错误的信息做出草率的决定。
academic wisdom 学术界的共识
wisdom n.（本文）经过长期验证、被广泛接受的公认观点；智慧
conventional wisdom 传统共识
long haul （投资语境）放长线；长途跋涉
haul n. 长途拖运
sensible 英 [ˈsensəbl] 美 [ˈsensəbl] adj.（本文）靠谱的；合理的
sensible approach 靠谱的做法
Given the current uncertainty, the most sensible approach is to reduce unnecessary spending and build up your emergency fund.鉴于当前的不确定性，最靠谱的做法是减少不必要的开支，充实你的应急储备。
hastily 英 [ˈheɪstɪli] 美 [ˈheɪstɪli] adv. 仓促、草率地
sound 英 [saʊnd] 美 [saʊnd] adj. 扎实的，站得住脚的
safe and sound 安然无恙
readily 英 [ˈredɪli] 美 [ˈredɪli] adv. 毫不犹豫地
foolproof 英 [ˈfuːlpruːf] 美 [ˈfuːlpruːf] adj. 万无一失的；防蠢，防傻瓜
waterproof adj. 防水
bulletproof adj. 防弹
No investment strategy is truly foolproof——the key is to know what you're betting on.没有任何投资策略是真正万无一失的——关键是你要清楚自己在押注什么。
set off 触发，引爆
set off a fire alarm 触发火警
set off a chain reaction 引发连锁反应
put aside 预留，存起来
Before taking any investment risk, make sure you've put aside at least six months of living expenses in a place you won't touch.在承担任何投资风险之前，确保你已经预留了至少六个月的生活费，放在一个你不会碰的地方。
ride out a storm 扛过风暴
ride out（投资语境）市场暴跌的时候不割肉、不清仓，等风暴过去；（航海术语）船在暴风雨中保持航向硬扛过去
The company managed to ride out the pandemic by cutting costs early.这家公司通过提前削减成本成功扛过了疫情。
stay the course 坚持到底；保持航向
course n. 航向
prosper 英 [ˈprɒspə] 美 [ˈprɑːspər] v. 茁壮成长，兴旺发达
prosperity n. 兴旺，繁荣
wise 英 [waɪz] 美 [waɪz] adj. 明智的
辨析：wise vs. smart
区别：wise比smart更厚重，smart一般就是"脑子活分"，wise对应的是经历过之后沉淀下来的深刻判断力。
departure 英 [dɪˈpɑːtʃə] 美 [dɪˈpɑːrtʃər] n.（本文）偏离；出发，离开
hope for A but prepare for B 祈盼A，但准备好应对B。
