9572
23【聊了什么】
2026年4月29日，最高法院在 Louisiana v. Callais 案中以6-3裁定，事实上掏空了1965年《投票权法》的第二条，这也是首席大法官罗伯茨在长达四十多年司法生涯的"收官之作"。从2013年的 Shelby County 到今天，南方各州终于可以名正言顺地按党派利益重划选区，而几乎不再受到种族歧视效果的实质约束。本期节目我们请回了林三土老师，和我们一起把这场判决的来龙去脉：1965年VRA是怎么诞生的、两党围绕第二条经历过怎样的拉锯、此前的判决如何为今天埋下伏笔，以及它接下来意味着什么。
除了VRA这条主线，我们也聊了白宫记者晚宴外那场抽象的未遂枪击案、DHS停摆终于在沉默中结束、薛定谔式的伊朗战事，以及缅因州州长Janet Mills退选、Graham Plantner锁定民主党提名——这是民主党的"茶党时刻"，还是只是建制派的又一次失败？
本期节目录制于5月3日。
更正与澄清：本期节目中提到特朗普被陪审团认定的是"性侵"而不是"强奸"。但 2023 年 8 月联邦法官 Lewis Kaplan 在驳回特朗普反诉时明确写道：说特朗普强奸了 Carroll，这个陈述"实质上是真实的"（substantially true）。之所以 5 月陪审团没勾"rape"那一栏，是因为90年代事发当时的纽约州刑法对强奸的定义非常窄，必须是阴茎侵入阴道（该法2024年已将强奸定义修改为包含更多侵入式性行为）。而陪审团认定的事实是手指强行侵入——这在纽约刑法以外的通用语境里，就是强奸。
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【时间轴】
01:50 路易斯安那 v. Callais：最高法院6-3掏空投票权法第二条
04:36 从1965年立法到罗伯茨的四十年布局
07:12 2019年Rucho案埋下的伏笔
17:08 2010年中期选举：南方政治版图的彻底翻转
24:25 选区重划军备竞赛
39:55 下一步会不会是"一人一票"？
46:50 选民反对gerrymandering，但也并不懂
56:30 白宫记者晚宴枪击案
1:04:40 DHS停摆结束：没有赢家的胜利
1:08:25 国会乱局
1:14:40 Janet Mills退选与Plantner锁定提名
1:22:33 薛定谔式的伊朗战事
【我们是谁】
美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。
本期的主播和嘉宾：
Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者
王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子
小华：媒体人
林垚，政治学、哲学、法学学者，高校教师，公众号“林三土”，播客“时差”、“催稿拉黑”，2024年出版文集《空谈》
【 What We Talked About】
On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana v. Callais, effectively gutting Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. For Chief Justice John Roberts, this is the capstone of a four-decade judicial career devoted to dismantling the VRA. From Shelby County in 2013 to today, Southern states can now openly redraw districts along partisan lines with little meaningful constraint from claims of racial discrimination. In this episode, we're joined once again by Lin Santu to walk through the full arc of the ruling: how the VRA came into being in 1965, how the two parties fought over Section 2 across the decades, how earlier decisions laid the groundwork for what just happened, and what comes next.
Beyond the VRA, we also get into the strangely amateurish attempted shooting outside the White House Correspondents' Dinner, the quiet end of the DHS shutdown, the Schrödinger's-cat status of the Iran war, and Maine governor Janet Mills dropping out of the Senate primary while Graham Plantner locks up the Democratic nomination — is this the Democrats' Tea Party moment, or just another defeat for the establishment?
Recorded May 3.
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Join our membership program: theamericanroulette.com
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Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com
【Timeline】
01:50 Louisiana v. Callais: Supreme Court Guts Section 2 of the VRA in 6-3 Ruling
04:36 From the 1965 VRA to Roberts' Four-Decade Crusade
07:12 How Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) Set the Stage
17:08 The 2010 Midterms: When the South Flipped for Good
24:25 The Redistricting Arms Race
39:55 Could "One Person, One Vote" Be Next?
46:50 Voters Oppose Gerrymandering — and Don't Really Get It
56:30 The Shooting Outside the White House Correspondents' Dinner
1:04:40 The DHS Shutdown Ends: A Victory With No Winners
1:08:25 Chaos on the Hill
1:14:40 Janet Mills Drops Out as Plantner Locks Up the Nomination
1:22:33 Schrödinger's Iran War
【Who We Are】
The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.
Our Hosts and Guests:
Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history
王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information
小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer
Lin Yao, scholar of political science, philosophy, and law; university faculty member; author of the WeChat public account "林三土"; host of the podcasts "时差" and "催稿拉黑"; published essay collection Empty Talk (《空谈》) in 2024.
