4304
7当预测市场不断壮大，我们是否会“达则对赌天下，穷亦难独善其身”？选举、战争乃至一条新闻，都能成为下注的标的；没有参与交易的人，也可能被卷入他人的赌局。这期，我们再谈预测市场，追问它如何改变人的立场、公共生活，乃至它正在预测的现实。当关心变成仓位，我们是在预测未来，还是在制造未来？
本期主播：
活在当下、老饕
剪辑：
曾谙
本期内容：
05:33 现实事件如何成为交易合约
07:43 剪辑师也能成为“内幕人士”
13:56 一条报道引来的死亡威胁
21:57 让纠错变得有利可图
30:35 群体智慧、资金优势与愿望式思维
35:47 激励机制对人的筛选与塑造
41:36 当世界变成老虎机：下注循环与立场极化
45:54 当关心变成仓位，公共生活会怎样改变？
53:48 反身性：预测的自我实现和落空
59:39 当赔率进入新闻
62:31 操纵如何成为可能
65:16 为权力直接报价
相关往期节目：
《E054 Polymarket：预测美国大选、颠覆传统博彩的新玩法？》
本期音乐：
Monomer - Instrumental version --- Leroy Wild
Skylines - No Backing Vocals --- The North
本期参考资料：
Taleb, N. N. (2018). Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life.
Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC). Gambling on Democracy.
Kalshi. Two Insider Cases We've Recently Closed. 2026-02-25
Fabian, E. Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story. The Times of Israel, 2026-03-16
Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D., & Rietz, T. A. (2008). Prediction market accuracy in the long run. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), 285–300
ACDC. A Handful of Bettors Are Setting the Odds on the 2026 Midterms. 2026-08-17
Seybert, N., & Bloomfield, R. (2009). Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets. Management Science, 55(5), 738–751
Hanson, R., & Oprea, R. (2009). A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy. Economica, 76(302), 304–314
The Wall Street Journal. How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024. 2024-11-15
Morewedge, C. K., Tang, S., & Larrick, R. P. (2018). Betting Your Favorite to Win: Costly Reluctance to Hedge Desired Outcomes. Management Science, 64(3), 997–1014
Schüll, N. D. (2012). Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas. Princeton University Press
Hirschman, A. O. (1977). The Passions and the Interests: Political Arguments for Capitalism before Its Triumph. Princeton University Press
Zelizer, V. A. (1979; 2017 再版). Morals and Markets: The Development of Life Insurance in the United States. Columbia University Press
Sandel, M. J. (2012). What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets. Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Soros, G. (2013). Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle. Journal of Economic Methodology, 20(4), 309–329
MacKenzie, D. (2006). An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets. MIT Press
Kalshi. CNBC and Kalshi announce exclusive partnership. 2025-12-04
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