这可能是你在2026年错过的/低估的一些人口数据

我们总是高估未来一两个月、一两年可能发生的变化，又往往低估以十年为周期的社会变迁。
还有不到两个月，2026年即将过去，回顾这一年，大部分人想到的是延宕至今的美伊以战争，是剧烈波动的金融市场，是日新月异的大模型。
过去一年，在我长期关注的人口与社会领域，有很多新的数据被发布出来。这些数据通常并不会得到太多报道，也缺乏系统性的解读。
然而这并不意味着它们不重要。恰恰相反，在我看来，这些数据对于理解当下我们所生活的这个时代，以及未来将要去到的地方，至关重要。

因此，我制作了这一期节目，尝试用四个问题、四条线索、四个关键词串连起那些被低估的数据与变迁。本期节目你将听到——

03:41 定局：低生育陷阱是可以摆脱的么？
46:49 衰退：人类能活到150岁么？
01:15:19 坍缩：重建巴别塔有可能么？
01:40:24 失联：仿生人会梦见电子羊么？

与节目内容相对应的演示文稿PDF可以点击【这里】下载，也可以通过下面的链接查看——
网盘链接: pan.baidu.com 提取码: i5g2

【节目中提到的参考文献】

• 生育行为与意愿之间的差距：Beaujouan, E., & Berghammer, C. (2019). The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach. Population Research and Policy Review, 38(4), 507-535. doi:10.1007/s11113-019-09516-3

• 精子浓度持续下降：Levine, H., et al. (2023). Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of samples collected globally in the 20th and 21st centuries. Human Reproduction Update, 29(2), 157-176. doi:10.1093/humupd/dmac035

• 前向运动精子比例下降：Luo, X., et al. (2023). Global trends in semen quality of young men: a systematic review and regression analysis. Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics, 40(8), 1807-1816. doi:10.1007/s10815-023-02859-z

• 2型糖尿病发病率在年轻群体中间上升：Xu, S. T., Sun, M., & Xiang, Y. (2025). Global, regional, and national trends in type 2 diabetes mellitus burden among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2021: a trend analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. World Journal of Pediatrics, 21(1), 73-89. doi:10.1007/s12519-024-00861-8

• 美国结直肠癌区分年龄组的发病率边际变化：Siegel, R. L., et al. (2026). Colorectal cancer statistics, 2026. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, 76(2), e70067. doi:10.3322/caac.70067

• 早发癌症的发病率增幅高于同癌种的晚发癌症：Terashima, M., et al. (2025). Diverging global incidence trends of early-onset cancers: comparisons with incidence trends of later-onset cancers and mortality trends of early-onset cancers. Military Medical Research, 12(1), 79. doi:10.1186/s40779-025-00670-8

• 吸烟、饮酒、肥胖、热浪、PM2.5 与内分泌干扰物：Szabó, A., Nyirády, P., & Kopa, Z. (2025). Impact of lifestyle and environmental factors on fertility. Current Opinion in Urology, 35(6), 685-690. doi:10.1097/MOU.0000000000001339

• 环境内分泌干扰物与代谢综合征相关，其中有机氯农药为最强一档：Pan, K., et al. (2025). The relationship between metabolic syndrome and environmental endocrine disruptors: A systematic review and meta-analysis. iScience, 28(7), 112907. doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.112907

• 双酚 A、邻苯二甲酸盐、PFAS 等内分泌干扰物与生殖激素改变相关：Mínguez-Alarcón, L., et al. (2023). Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and male reproductive health. Fertility and Sterility, 120(6), 1138-1149. doi:10.1016/j.fertnstert.2023.10.008

• 超加工食品、含糖饮料、久坐、抗生素滥用与菌群失调：Lopes-Júnior, L. C. (2025). The Emerging Epidemic of Early-Onset Cancer: Global Patterns, Biological Complexity, and Urgent Calls for Action. Cancer Control, 32. doi:10.1177/10732748251386505

• 高含糖饮料摄入与精子数量、活力下降及 DNA 碎片率升高相关：Win, W. K. Y., et al. (2025). Sweet Drinks, Sour Consequences: The Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Sperm Health, a Narrative Review. Nutrients, 17(10), 1733. doi:10.3390/nu17101733

• 久坐与精子浓度：Gaskins, A. J., et al. (2015). Physical activity and television watching in relation to semen quality in young men. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 49(4), 265-270. doi:10.1136/bjsports-2012-091644

• 睡眠不足与饥饿，以及碳水偏好：Spiegel, K., Tasali, E., Penev, P., & Van Cauter, E. (2004). Brief communication: Sleep curtailment in healthy young men is associated with decreased leptin levels, elevated ghrelin levels, and increased hunger and appetite. Annals of Internal Medicine, 141(11), 846-850. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-141-11-200412070-00008

• 皮质醇与性腺轴相互作用：Odetayo, A. F., et al. (2024). Impact of stress on male fertility: role of gonadotropin inhibitory hormone. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 14, 1329564. doi:10.3389/fendo.2023.1329564

• 通过生成式人工智能寻求情感支持，与临床显著情绪问题之间的相关性：Bonnesen, K., Krygsman, A., Hobson, S., Korczak, D., & Vaillancourt, T. (2026). Affective Generative AI Use and Youth Mental Health. JAMA Pediatrics, 180(11), 1260. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2026.3904

• 通过 AI 聊天机器人寻求心理健康建议：McBain, R. K., et al. (2026). AI Chatbot Use and Disclosure for Mental Health Among US Adolescents and Young Adults. JAMA Pediatrics, 180(8), 884-890. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2026.2015

• 孤独与社会隔离的死亡风险：Holt-Lunstad, J., et al. (2015). Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: A meta-analytic review. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 10(2), 227-237. doi:10.1177/1745691614568352